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DefSec (Венгрия), 14.03.2011, Kazakhstan 2030 - President Nazarbayev's election programme
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DefSec (Венгрия), 14.03.2011, Kazakhstan 2030 - President Nazarbayev's election programme,


the Snow Leopard model

Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev's election programme is known as ‘Kazakhstan 2030', the President said in his 2011 Annual Address. It is a unique way of the country, as the President described, the Snow Leopard model, integrating elements, but not copying other development paths, ways, the analisys of defsec.info says.

"My vision of the future path is outlined in the strategy of Kazakhstan up to 2030, the strategic development plan for our country until 2020 and my recent message to the people. This will be our election platform," Mr Nazarbayev said speaking at a congress of Kazakhstan's ruling People's Democratic Party Nur Otan, which nominated him as its candidate for the April snap presidential elections.

For the West there are two key points of interest (foreign policy, trade relations) regarding Kazakhstan's development, greatly influenced by the new President to be chosen on 3 April.

Foreign policy: Kazakhstan builds international relations with flexibility and foresight, balancing among regional, global groups, countries and power centres. As the Kazakhstan 2030 plan stipulates, the country's international ties have a four-pronged system. Russia remains Kazakhstan's main strategic partner. Bilateral economic ties are growing even stronger due to Kazakhstan's membership in the new customs union with Russia and Belarus, bringing Astana additional USD2bn yearly revenue from coordinated hydrocarbon export tariffs. China is a source of investment capital and technology, it remains the biggest customer for Kazakhstan's oil, natural gas and uranium. The third element is the Middle East, the Islamic countries. The fourth element involves others, mainly western powers. Efforts to build U.S. ties have not been returned by the U.S. with equal enthusiasm, U.S. diplomats continue to lecture Kazakhstan on human rights and the promotion of democracy, centralasianewswire.com, a Washington-based independent news service writes. This is despite the fact that Kazakhstan has a better record on democracy than its neighbours and a better record on respecting human rights than other nations across the Eurasian heartland. A key element of the country's foreign policy is support of the international efforts to fight terrorism, extremism and fundamentalism. Kazakhstan's geographical location (an indirect neighbour of the volatile Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan triad) upgrades Astana's stabilising role into an extremely important one.

International trade relations: Kazakhstan's location (situated on strategic cross-roads between Russia, western Europe, the Islamic world, India and China) the country has tremendous potential of major marketing areas for Kazakhstani produce. "Neighbouring markets embracing about 2,000,000,000 people are capable of absorbing - with rare exceptions - any Kazakhstani product, provided, naturally, that it is compatible and there is a network of related transport routes. These neighbours, more particularly Russia, China, a group of Islamic and Central Asian states, countries of the Near and Middle East, historically represent important world centres" the President said outlining the Kazakhstan 2030 programme. China's importance is rising, as Beijing's economic might is growing, and the Middle Kingdom is changing strategy: instead of the "factory of the world" she aspires becoming the "global trading house" and Kazakhstan calculates with this strategy change of its mighty neighbour.

What are the seven long-term priorities Mr Nazarbayev considers important in his Kazakhstan 2030 programme?

1. NATIONAL SECURITY: That is to guarantee development of Kazakhstan as an independent sovereign state preserving its complete territorial integrity, maintain friendly relations with neighbours. The country shall develop and consolidate relations of confidence and equality with the closest and historically equal neighbour - Russia. On China, the President says: "Likewise we shall develop just as confident and good-neighbourly relations with the PRC on a mutually advantageous basis. Kazakhstan welcomes the policy pursued by China, for it is aimed against hegemonism and favours friendship with neighbouring countries". It is highly remarkable that the President describes as "integration processes" elements of Kazakhstan's relations with Central-Asian states. The second component of the strategy consists in strengthening relations with major industrial democratic states including the United States of America. The third component involves using the assistance and support granted by international institutions and forums as the UNO, the IMF, the World Bank, the Asian, European and Islamic banks of development. The fourth component of the strategy embraces developing of rich natural resources, which may serve a reliable basis for the protection of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. And the last component is the emotional side: developing a strong sense of patriotism and love to the country.

2. POLITICAL STABILITY AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE KAZAKHSTANI SOCIETY: it aimed at building a civic society, based on equality of opportunities for all the citizens of the country. You cannot underestimate the significance of this sentence, especially if considering that all of it is based on an open market economy as the next, 3. point stipulates. It involves elimination of causes for ethnic differences, narrow the gap between the wealthy and the poor, strengthen mutual respect, tolerance and relations of confidence between various confessions. Strategically the key of solving these problems is economic growth.

3. ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON AN OPEN MARKET ECONOMY WITH HIGH LEVEL OF FOREIGN INVESTMENTS AND INTERNAL SAVINGS: "Our strategy of healthy economic growth rests on a strong market economy, an active part played by the state and attraction of significant foreign investments thereto", the Kazakhstan 2030 programme underlines. Kazakhstan is actively to use its immense natural wealth, hydrocarbon reserves. Success of economic reforms requires reappraisal of the role of the state. Authorities, both in the centre and in the periphery, must stop any interference with the economy, cease launching sowing campaigns, harvesting, etc. (That is breaking with the Soviet-era's practice of a mighty, all-knowing state apparatus.) In the economy, the state must play a substantial, though limited part in creating legitimate limits of the market in which the private sector is offered a leading part.

4. HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELL-BEING OF KAZAKHSTANI CITIZENS: Consistently improve standards of life, health, education and opportunities of the Kazakhstanis, improve natural environment in the country - this is the main goal.

5. POWER RESOURCES: Effectively utilize power resources of Kazakhstan through rapid increase in extracting and exporting oil and gas with the aim of increasing revenues, which would enhance stable economic growth and improvement of living standards of the people. Strategy includes signing long-term partnership with main overseas oil companies to attract state-of-the-art technology, know-how, large amounts of capital for quick and effective utilization of the resources. Kazakhstan is in search of partners for long-term. Part of the strategy is the creation of oil and gas exporting pipelines system. Only a large quantity of sovereign export routes can prevent dependence on a single neighbour as well as monopoly pricing dependence on a single consumer. Major partners involved in investing in the development of oil and gas business include the USA, Russia, China, Japan, and West European countries. With the attraction of overseas investments, the country shall accelerate the creation and development of the domestic energy infrastructure, and settle the problem of self-sufficiency and competitive independence.

6. INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION: The aim is to develop these key sectors in such a way that they add to strengthening of national security, political stability and economic growth.

7. PROFESSIONAL STATE: the country needs an effective and well-trained corps of civil servants and state-owned formations loyal to the cause they serve to and capable of acting as representatives of the people in achieving priorities. "For each of these long-term priorities we must elaborate and consistently implement a special strategy concentrating our efforts on specific actions outlined in one-year, three-year and, finally, five-year plans," the President's programme notes.

These long-term priorities must serve the purpose of focusing the efforts exerted by both the state and its citizens, they must make the basis of criteria in forming the budget of the country and personnel policy.

By concluding the essence of the Snow Leopard model, the President uses a highly colourful, symbolic and interesting description of the Kazakhstani Snow Leopard, an animal with inherent sense of independence, intelligence, courage and nobleness, bravery and cunning. It will never be the first to attack anyone, ever prone to avoiding direct clashes, however, any time when his freedom, habitation or descendants come to be threatened, the animal would defend them with all its might. The animal must be wiry and it must not suffer from obesity and laziness for otherwise it would hardly survive in severe environment. The Kazakhstani Snow Leopard would also possess western elegance multiplied by the advanced level of development, oriental wisdom and endurance. That particular animal treasures common heritage with his brothers, the Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and other Central Asian Snow Leopards, brought up by a single mother.

This is the road that the Snow Leopard will complete by 2030. The road is not an easy one, as in previous years Kazakhstan actively followed the Anglo-Saxon variant of state-nation building. The basic difference between the two types of models, Anglo-Saxon and the Asian one, is that while the western model advocates a limited role of the state while in the second case this particular role is overemphasized. "Yet, today we face a strategic alternative - which way to choose", the President said. "We are a Eurasian country having its own specific history and specific future. That's why our model would bear likeness to neither model".

Peter Dunai