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s, is another approach that is frequently used to forecast human resource needs. Finally, technological, or qualitative, forecasting, which is aimed mainly at predicting long-term trends in technology and other important aspects of the environment (see, e.g., the Delphi method described in Chapter 9), can also help predict future demand.one recent study, almost 60 percent of the responding major business organizations reported that they attempt to forecast human resource demand. Of those, more than one-half develop both short-term (covering about 1 year) and long-term (covering about 5 years) forecasts.of Human Resourcesis only one side of the equation governing whether an organization' have sufficient human resources to operate effectively. In assessing the other side, supply, human resource professionals and managers consider both internal and external labor supplies.Labor Supply. One prime supply source is the pool of current employees who can be transferred or promoted to help meet demands for human resources. Major means of assessing the internal labor supply include skills inventories, replacement planning, and succession planning.skills inventory is a data bank (usually computerized) containing basic information about each employee that can be used to assess the likely availability of individuals for meeting current and future human resource needs. A skills inventory typically contains information regarding each employee's performance, knowledge, skills, experience, interests, and relevant personal characteristics.planning is a means of identifying potential candidates to fill specific managerial positions through the use of replacement charts. A replacement chart is a partial organization chart showing the major managerial positions in an organization, current incumbents, potential replacements for each position (usually including current performance rating and an assessment of each individual's preparedness to assume the particular position), and the age of each person on the chart (see Figure 12-2). With replacement charts, age is used to track possible retirements, but it is not considered in determining promotions. On the contrary, managers must be careful not to discriminate against older workers in making such choices. The Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967, as amended in 1978 and 1986, prohibits discrimination against employees and job applicants who are more than 40 years old. The law covers promotion, as well as hiring and termination decisions. Under one provision of the law, with few exceptions, organizations cannot force employees to retire because of age. Exceptions include law enforcement officers and firefighters.replacement planning focuses on specific candidates who could fill designated managerial positions, succession planning is a means of identifying individuals with high potential and ensuring that they receive appropriate train-!rig and job assignments aimed at their long-run growth and development. The purpose of succession planning is to ensure that the organization has a well-qualified pool of individuals from which to draw middle and top managers in the future.Labor Supply. Some reliance on the external labor supply usually is necessary because of organizational expansion and/or employee attrition. Periodic estimates of labor supplies in a variety of categories are made by a number of government agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.J Department of Labor, the Engineering Manpower Commission, and the Public Health Service of the Department of Health and Human Services. Industry and human resource associations also often can provide helpful information to supplement the knowledge of line managers in specialized areas. In addition human resource professionals, particularly those heavily engaged in recruitment and selection, often are knowledgeable about supply trends in given areas.Demand and Supplyestimates are made of the demand and potential supplies of human resources, steps are often necessary to balance the two. If estimates show that the internal supply of employees exceeds the number necessary, then plan must be made to reduce the number of employees. Often, small reductions can be made through employee resignations and retirements. When more major reductions are needed, organizations sometimes offer early retirement to certain categories of employees with a significant number of years of service. In other cases, layoffs may be necessary. On the other hand, if an increase in the number of employees is necessary, then plans must be made for promotions and transfers of current employees, when desirable, as well as for hiring new employees.Action Issues.One important aspect of reconciling supply demand is considering the implications for affirmative action, any special activity undertaken by employers to increase equal employment opportunities groups protected by federal equal employment opportunity laws and related regulations. As mentioned earlier, Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 amended by the Equal Employment Opportunity Act of 1972) forbids employment discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. Groups covered by Title VII and related laws and regulations are often referred to as "protected groups."action is important because organizations often have patterns of employment in which protected groups are underrepresented in certain areas such as management, relative to the number of group members who have appropriate credentials in the marketplace. As a result, an organization may an affirmative action plan, a written, systematic plan that specifies goals; timetables for hiring, training, promoting, and retaining groups protected by federal equal employment laws and related regulations. Such plans are required by federal regulations for organizations with federal contracts than $50,000 and with 50 or more employees. The plans, which must be with the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (Department of Labor), must include provisions for hiring the disabled (as stipulated by the Rehabilitation Act of 1973). Courts sometimes require that organizations formulate affirmative action plans because of evidence of past discriminatory practices. Many organizations, though, establish affirmative action programs on a voluntary basis.courts generally have held that employers may establish such voluntary programs, the programs must balance efforts to assist women and minorities against the rights of others who may be competing for the same jobs. For example, courts generally have been unwilling to approve plans that cause individuals to lose their jobs in order to make room for protected groups, but they have allowed more limited burdens, such as postponements of promotions.action programs continue to be challenged in the courts by individuals and groups who do not fit into the protected category and who charge reverse discrimination.Trends. Demographic shifts also are causing organizations to place emphasis on hiring women and minorities. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections indicate that annual work-force growth, which was about 2 percent from 1976 to 1988, has slowed to only 1.2 percent since 1988 and will continue at the lower rate at least until the year 2000. Part of the reason is that most of the baby-boomers wishing to work have already been absorbed into the work force, and there is no similar bulge of workers behind them. One implication, according to the bureau's figures, is that, out of necessity, women will constitute about 47 percent of the work force and minorities and immigrants about 26 percent by the year 2000. In preparation, a number of companies are placing new emphasis On "managing diversity." For example, at a Digital Equipment Corporation factory in Boston that makes computer keyboards, the 350 employees represent 44 countries. Because of the 19 different languages spoken, written plant announcements are printed in English, Chinese, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Vietnamese, and Haitian Creole. Some organizations are filling vacancies with part-time workers, many of whom are senior citizens who have retired from ill-time jobs. For example, the Travelers Corporation, an insurance company based in Hartford, Connecticut, runs a job bank for area retirees in order to have workers available for part-time and temporary clerical and administrative jobs. Diversity issues and other considerations that grow out of human resource plan-then become the basis for staffing efforts.

Simulation Overview

is a powerful tool. With it, you can analyze, design, and operate complex systems. You use models to assess real-world processes too complex to analyze via spreadsheets or flowcharts, testing hypotheses at a fraction of the cost of undertaking the actual activities. An efficient communication tool, modeling shows how an operation works and stimulates creative thinking about how to improve it. Models in industry, government, and educational institutions shorten design cycles, reduce costs, and enhance knowledge.and Usemodel is a logical description of how a system, process, or component behaves. Instead of interacting with the real system, you can create a model that corresponds to it in certain aspects. For example, the board game MonopolyтДв is a model of a real system: the hotels and facilities of Atlantic City.involves designing a model of a system and carrying out experiments on it. The purpose of these "what if experiments is to determine how the real system performs and to predict the effect of changes to the system as time progresses. For example, you use simulation to answer questions like:this change to our process result in higher yields/quality/revenues? many people are required to maintain service at a specified level? we design this television with fewer components and still maintain picture clarity?

Models ar

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