Оглавление экономика 6
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Информационный сайт PR-inside.com (Австрия), KAZAKHSTAN INSURANCE REPORT 2008 - COMPANIESANDMARKETS.COM ADDS NEW REPORT, by Mike KING, November 25, 2008
With a population of just under 15mn and a booming energy sector, Kazakhstan should be prospective territory for the world’s insurers. Moreover, by the standards of Central and Eastern Europe (for the purposes of comparative analysis, we include Kazakhstan in our Central and Eastern Europe region), there are other attractions. The political environment appears fairlystable. Overall country risk levels do not appear to be particularly worrying. Relative to other countries in the region, the absolute growth in non-life premiums that can be expected in 2007-2012 is quite large. This outcome does not require spectacular GDP growth or a massive rise in the non-life penetration.
On balance, though, it is the weaknesses of the Kazakh insurance sector that predominate. For one thing, life insurance hardly exists at all – even though per capita GDP already exceeds US$6,000. For another, the accumulative pension funds have amassed assets of just US$250mn or so and appear not to be growing. It is very difficult to escape the conclusion that Kazakhs have little faith in making long-term savings through local financial institutions. They may have a point. As we explain in this report, mounting economic imbalances – which relate to the country’s huge external debt and consequent exposure to the risk appetite of international investors – have caused a credit squeeze. The government has announced that it will set up a US$4bn fund to provide assistance to troubled banks.
Various other aspects of Kazakhstan’s insurance sector suggest that it is very different to its counterparts in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe. For instance, Compulsory Third Party Motor Liability (CTPML) insurance, normally the first line to develop in an emerging insurance market, is unimportant.
Instead, property insurance accounts for the overwhelming majority of the non-life segment in Kazakhstan. Moreover, the non-life segment is dominated by a relatively large number of local operations, many of which are tiny by world standards and none of which are large by international While the competitive landscape is not as bizarre as that of Ukraine (to take another example from the former USSR) or Nigeria (to consider another economy that is totally dominated by the energy sector), it is not easy to avoid the conclusion that regulations and/or the business environment of Kazakhstan is a significant barrier to entry. Quite unlike in Ukraine or the Baltic States, multinational insurers are thin on the ground in Kazakhstan. Global giant AIG has had a presence for a while, but is only a mid-rank player.
Allianz entered the market in late 2007 by way of a small acquisition (of ATF Polis – from a bank that is owned by Italy’s Unicredito). Generali effectively entered Kazakhstan in early 2007 – but this was only because it entered into a joint venture with Èeská Poisovòa (the former state owned monopoly of the Czech Republic) which covers 12 countries across Central and Eastern Europe. Èeská Poisovòa had earlier established a life subsidiary in Kazakhstan. Other firms with aspirations in the region – such as the large French groups, Scandinavian financial services conglomerates, Germany’s ERGO and the major Austrian firms – are absent. So too are the enormous insurers that are based in the Asia Pacific region countries, which are, over the long term, potential buyers of Kazakh energy (and especially China).
Will this change if the credit crunch really begins to bite? On balance, we suspect not. Most of the larger players in Kazakhstan are doing business with the energy sector and, in some cases, may effectively be captive insurers. A lot of the risk is being passed on to reinsurers. Some of the smallest Kazakh firms may face problems but, collectively, their share of non-life premiums is small.
Информационный сайт PR-Inside.com (Австрия), KAZAKHSTAN FREIGHT TRANSPORT REPORT 2008 - COMPANIESANDMARKETS.COM ADDS NEW REPORT, by Mike KING, November 25, 2008,
In October 2007 President Nursultan Nazarbaev said that his government would implement a total of 80 investment projects, worth around US$30bn in the period to 2015, as part of its new transport programme.
The aims of the programme included laying around 1,600km of new railway track, electrifying 2,700km of existing railways, and building or preparing 50,000 km of roads across the country. The government also intends to modernise airport infrastructure, develop the merchant fleet, and expand port and navigable waterway infrastructure. Driving this ambitious programme is the fact that Kazakhstan is sitting on a lot of oil and gas – 29bn barrels of proven reserves at present, which is likely to rise further according to officials. One of the key issues for the freight transport industry as the country pushes ahead with development plans, which could make it one of the world’s top five oil exporters, is how to shift all this oil and get it to consumers in both the West (Europe) and the East (principally China). At present there are four main export routes, the latest of which started pumping crude to China in 2006. Two further routes are being proposed. In our Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report 2008, BMI concludes that pipeline throughput can be expect to increase by an annual average of 13.9% per annum Various factors support this prediction. The most important is the rapid pace of development of new oil and gas fields, and strong demand from customers to both East and West. The forecast is also underpinned by strong economic growth and a particularly dynamic future for foreign trade over the next five years.
The overall outlook for the Kazakh freight transport sector is very positive. The rail sector is poised to gain from a round of new state investment in locomotives and track, which should take the annual rise in volume to 13.3% in the 2008-2012 period. Then comes airfreight, based on the expected growth of Air Astana and others, at 13.2%. Road haulage will grow slowest, but will still achieve an impressive 12.6% expansion rate. Kazakhstan scores 49 out of a theoretical maximum of 70, compared with an average of 45.0 for its regional peers, in our freight business environment rating. This high score reflects the country’s strength in transport intensity – a measure of the dynamism of foreign trade – and freight growth. Areas for improvement include the regulatory and competitive environments.
The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US14.22bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 7.4% of Kazakhstan’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 519,000 people, or 7.2% of the labour force, last year. We see the total figure falling slightly to 516,000 by 2012 (Kazakhstan has a contracting population) but remaining at 7.2% of the total.