Note on Process

Вид материала

Документы

Содержание Arms Control: An Uncertain Agenda

Подобный материал:

• Theory of the epizootic process main laws and categories in epizootic process, 151.4kb.
• Дуг Бримсон Эдди Бримсон, 2339.55kb.
• A practical guide to business process re-engineering, 2179.62kb.
• Обеспечение устойчивости понижающего преобразователя с управлением по напряжению, 82.71kb.
• Working Process Difficulty and Intensity руководство, 2417.96kb.
• Business Process Improvement [10]. Данная статья, 468.27kb.
• The didactic maintenance of the distance educational process. Actuality of this problem, 93.85kb.
• The possibility of the use of the data Markov’s accidental processes theory for modeling, 31.22kb.
• Working Process Difficulty and Intensity руководство, 3624.51kb.
• Business Process Modeling Notation, bpmn это новый стандарт для моделирования бизнес, 150.63kb.

Theater-range ballistic and cruise missile proliferation will continue. Most proliferation will involve systems a generation or two behind state of the art, but they will be substantially new capabilities for the states that acquire them. Such missiles will be capable of delivering WMD or conventional payloads inter-regionally against fixed targets. Major air and sea ports, logistics bases and facilities, troop concentrations, and fixed communications nodes increasingly will be at risk.

• Land-attack cruise missiles probably will be more accurate than ballistic missiles.
  

Access to Space. US competitors and adversaries realize the degree to which access to space is critical to US military power, and by 2015 they will have made strides in countering US space dominance. International commercialization of space will give states and nonstate adversaries access rivaling today's major space powers in such areas as high-resolution reconnaissance and weather prediction, global encrypted communications, and precise navigation. When combined, such services will provide adversaries who are aware of US and allied force deployments the capability for precise targeting and global coordination of operations. Moreover, many adversaries will have developed capabilities to degrade US space assets—in particular, with attacks against ground facilities, electronic warfare, and denial and deception. By 2015, several countries will have such counterspace technologies as improved space-object tracking, signal jamming, and directed-energy weapons such as low-power lasers.

Arms Control: An Uncertain Agenda The last three decades witnessed significant negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union (and Russia), but the future probably will not replicate those efforts in form or magnitude. The INF, CFE, and START I treaties and, to a large extent, the CWC were concluded in an effort to reduce tensions during the Cold War. Verification and monitoring in each of these treaties were viewed as essential to their implementation. Prospects for bilateral arms control between the major powers probably will be dim over the next 15 years; progress in multilateral regimes—with less intrusive and lower-certainty monitoring—probably will grow sporadically. Beyond this generalization: Efforts will be incremental, focusing mainly on extensions, modifications or adaptations of existing treaties, such as START III between the United States and Russia or a protocol enhancing verification of the Biological Weapons Convention. Efforts will assume a more regional focus as countries of concern continue developing their own WMD arsenals. Safeguarding and controlling transfer of materials and technology for nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems will take on greater importance. Formal agreements probably will contain limited monitoring or verification provisions. Agreements are more likely to be asymmetrical in terms of the goals and outcomes. For example, a form of barter may become the norm. Sides will negotiate dissimilar commitments in reaching agreement. An example would be North Korea's willingness to give up nuclear weapons and missiles in return for electric power and space launch services.