Iii основы реферирования и аннотирования. Практические рекомендации

Вид материала

Методические рекомендации

Содержание Rattling the piggy bank.

Подобный материал:

• Вопрос: Теория и практика реферирования, 8.08kb.
• Обучение реферированию на уроках английского языка дубинина Т. Г. Красноярский государственный, 178.2kb.
• Аннотация примерной программы учебной дисциплины Иностранный язык Цели и задачи дисциплины, 2303.53kb.
• Аннотация примерной программы учебной дисциплины Иностранный язык Цели и задачи дисциплины, 2532.37kb.
• Практические рекомендации 3-е издание, переработанное и дополненное Домодедово 2007, 710.08kb.
• Методические указания и практические рекомендации по прохождению, 964.89kb.
• Практические рекомендации по выбору типовой модели системы управления качеством образования, 825.59kb.
• Практические рекомендации по выбору типовой модели системы управления качеством образования, 869.13kb.
• Т. В. Черткова Бухгалтерский учет, Основы бухгалтерского учета, Практические основы, 29.47kb.
• Iii. Продукия, ее особенности 6 III описание продукции 6 III применяемые технологии, 2464.73kb.

Text D.

1. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты):

RATTLING THE PIGGY BANK.

When bond yields rose sharply last year many economists got into a tizzy about the possibility that the world would start to run short of capital. This triggered an avalanche of studies, of which the latest, from the imf, finds some evidence for such fears. It is this sav­ings shortfall, says the Fund, that is largely to blame for high real interest rates.

By saving rather than consuming cur­rent output, countries enjoy less jam to­day, but because these savings are in­vested they can look forward to higher income and consumption tomorrow. So if the total supply of savings (whether by individuals, firms or governments) falls, global investment and hence growth will be constrained. Some economists worry that the ageing populations of industrial countries are going to start running down their savings just when the investment ap­petite of emerging economies is growing. The resulting capital shortage would hit rich industrial economies harder than the developing countries, because they offer a more meagre return on investment.

The IMF finds three pieces of evidence that investment is already being choked off by a savings shortage. Real long-term interest rates are historically high, suggest­ing an imbalance between desired invest­ment and the supply of capital. Savings and investment have both fallen as a share of GDP over the past decade or so. And the average rate of return on produc­tive capital has almost doubled since the 1960s, suggesting that marginally profit­able projects have been squeezed out by a scarcity of savings.

The rise in real interest rates has cer­tainly been striking. And since real long-term interest rates are the price at which global investment demand matches the supply of savings, the rise clearly signals a shift in the balance between savings and invest­ment. But has this been due to greater in­vestment opportunities (due to techno­logical advances, say) or to lower savings?

The former seems unlikely given that the ratio of investment to gdp has fallen since the 1960s. Lower savings seem to be the culprit.

Private savings rates have barely changed since the 1960s in rich countries as a whole (despite some notable excep­tions, such as spendthrift America). Instead, the cause of the savings shortfall is that governments in these countries are saving less, i.e. they are borrowing (dis­saving) more. The IMF calculates that, on average, each one percentage point rise in the world ratio of government debt to gdp adds 14 basis points (hundredths of a percent) to real long-term interest rates. Indeed, the imf suggests that higher gov­ernment borrowing explains as much as four-fifths of the increase in real interest rates between the 1960s and now.


Supersavers

Will this savings shortfall increase? This depends upon two factors: how fast devel­oping countries grow and what govern­ments do about their borrowing.

Countries that save more tend to grow faster. Over the past ten years, 14 of the 20 fastest-growing economies had savings rates of more than 25% of GDP. In con­trast, 14 of the 20 slowest-growing econo­mies had savings rates below 15%. But which way does the causality run?

Higher savings clearly boost growth by spurring investment. But, intriguingly, the IMF argues that there is also evidence that faster growth itself causes savings rates to rise. Many East Asian economies, for example, enjoyed rapid growth before they began saving more. South Korea was one of the world’s least thrifty countries in the early 1960s; now it is one of its biggest savers. This suggests that a vicious circle connects growth and savings, with faster growth spurring higher savings and higher savings boosting growth. The rea­son this matters is that it implies that most of the savings needed to finance the investment of fast-growing developing countries will be self-generated.

Saving in developing countries should also rise because of their demo­graphic structures. As more young people reach working age, more will become sav­ers. The IMF estimates that this could boost developing countries’ savings rates by three percentage points of gdp over the next 20 years, roughly cancelling out the expected fall in private savings in in­dustrial countries.

Whether a lack of savings will cramp future investment will in the end turn mainly on the fiscal policies of govern­ments in developed countries. In that case, says the IMF, real interest rates could fall by up to two percentage points.

If, on the other hand, growth in devel­oping countries is sluggish and industrial countries continue to run big budget defi­cits, global savings could drop by 2-3% of GDP, and real interest rates would in­crease. The IMF'S model suggests that a rise in real interest rates of one percentage point would, in the long run, lead to a 12% reduction in the world’s capital stock. This, in turn, would lower the sustainable level of consumption by 2%.

And the moral of the tale? Global capi­tal markets may have weakened the abil­ity of governments to steer their econo­mies in many ways. But governments do still have the power to boost national sav­ings, by eliminating budget deficits. Doing so will have a much bigger impact on future growth than any amount of fiscal or monetary fine-tuning.

VOCABULARY

1. to run short of capital	испытать нехватку капитала
2. savings shortfall	низкий уровень (нехватка) сбережений
3. total supply of savings	общий объем (сумма) сбережений
4. average rate of return on productive capital	средний уровень доходности производительного капитала (чаще инвестиций в производстве)
5. private savings	частные сбережения
6. dissaving	превышение расходов над доходами («проедание» доходов)
7. percentage point	стат. - процентный пункт
8. ratio of government debt to GDP	доля государственного долга в ВВП (валовой внутренний продукт)
9. basis point	базисный пункт
10. capital stock	основные фонды
11. level of consumption	уровень потребления

2. Переведите отрывок «Supersavers».

3. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.


«Banks and banking. Saving»

Topics for discussion

1. Banking goes global.
   
2. Banks are taking greater risks than they used to.
   
3. Central banks and price stability.
   
4. Lloyds Bank TSB: the best way to advance was to retreat (Lloyds vs. globalization).
   
5. The world needs to save more to sustain rapid rates of growth.