Geum.ru

Учебно-методическое пособие по курсу a handbook with resource material for the course «Теория и методы политического анализа»

Вид материалаУчебно-методическое пособие

Содержание


Questions for discussion
Подобный материал:
1   ...   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13


*non available

The columns Export and Import are the export and import of goods and services in % to GDP in US dollars according to the market rate. The columns Export of High Technology Production show the share of high technology production in the export of manufacturing industry.

Calculated according to: World Bank (2003), Countries and Regions (2002) and Statistical Reference book of the World Bank.


As it is seen in Table 1, the countries of the first group with high and increasing foreign economic quota are national economies which were able to reach very high results – that is first of all China, the country, which more than tripled its GDP, and also South Korea, which almost doubled its GDP, but which got into the épicentre of the devastating Asian crisis of the 1997-1999s. This crisis became the first manifestation of the world crisis of global capitalism. In the same group there are countries (France and Germany) with indicators of a very low economic growth. Meanwhile the second group of countries, mostly oriented upon their own domestic markets, shows that their economic results turned out to be quite acceptable though later those countries couldn’t managed to escape the following recession.

What characterized the economic development of the Russian Federation in the period involved? In this period the economy of the Russian Federation found itself in the phase of acute transformative crisis (1990-1998), which coincided, with the policy of increasing openness and the increasing tendency of export orientation of the country’s economy.


Data given in Table 1 witness that the attempt of using export oriented developmental strategy failed to prevent the country from the large scale recession when the decrease of GDP constituted 56.7%. Though it is necessary to point out that the same strategy resulted in the beginning of a new phase of economic growth characterizing the Russian Federation since 1999 because it has been pursued under more favourable conditions of foreign economic competition for the Russian economy. From 1999 up to 2004 GDP of the country increased almost by 40% though the rate of growth was not stable and showed the tendency for decreasing. In 2004 the increase of GDP constituted 6.9%, meanwhile in 2003 it was equal to 7.3% and in 2005 it was expected to fall down to 5.8-5.9%.


To what extent is it reasonable for Russia to use export-oriented strategy for its future development? Discussing this question it is necessary to bear in mind that this strategy by itself, as the international experience shows, can be rather efficient if the raw material specialization is avoided (World Bank, 2004).


If to speak about Russia at present, it is still the country with the predominating raw material specialization. It exports 50 sorts of raw materials to more that 90 countries of the world supplying the world market with nickel, primary aluminium and cellulose which constitute about 80% of all that is produced in the country; more than 70% of refined copper, more that 60% of rolled black metal and almost half the amount of extracted oil. It covers 40% of European needs in natural gas. Thus the share of mineral products of exported goods exceeds 55% with share of raw oil and gas reaching almost 44%.

The question is how to get away from the raw material specialization and to get rid of ‘Dutch disease”. Theoretically it is possible taking into consideration the force of spontaneous character of the market but in practice due to many reasons such a variant doesn’t seem to have good prospects. It is also difficult for Russia to use modern Chinese policy repeating Japanese and New Industrialized countries’ experience (Kolesov V.P., Osmova M.N., 2000).


The difficulty, in particular, is explained by higher costs demanded for goods of mass production in the Russian Federation due to high energy consumption, which is caused, by unfavourable climate and natural conditions. For the production of similar goods it is necessary to spend in 2-2.5 times more energy resources in Russia than in the majority of other countries. Besides the level of salaries and wages in the Russian Federation though much lower than in the countries of the European Union and the USA, with those countries having more than 20 dollars per hour, but it is higher than in developing countries. At the end of 2004 the average hour’s rate of payment for work in the Russian Federation was not lower than 1.5 US dollars of the market’s exchange rate, but more than 5 dollars according to the parity of shopping capability of a Russian ruble.


This means that for the development of Russian economy in the time of increasing globalisation it is wise to combine two strategies.

Firstly, it is sensible to put the stake at the development of domestic market increasing the shopping ability of the population which will stimulate the domestic demand and diversify the economy. It was the policy of the USA and Japan. At present such maneuver is possible taking into account a large flow of oil dollars.


Secondly, the provision of the best conditions for the development of the economy of the Russian Federation presupposes the choice of science and high technology production oriented at the demands of world market supported by the use of state methods of mobilizing resources in the interests of achievement of this key task. The scientific, technological and educational potential of the country can provide the country with such a possibility for the development. Besides if favourable terms of high prices for oil are preserved at the world markets of raw materials rent profit can become one of the main investment sources for directing Russia’s economy to the science consuming production and implementation of corresponding structural changes.


QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION


Nina SLANEVSKAYA:

I quite agree that the diversity in all spheres of life (social, cultural, political, economic) is important to preserve because the absence of it inevitably leads to the greater number of mistakes in decision-making when the outlook is limited by the totally similar understanding or misunderstanding of the problem.

You speak about Russia as an object of globalisation, which serves the centres of globalisation and about the time when Russia would be able to promote its own values and ideas how to change and improve the “existing model of globalisation turning it into the globalisation with ‘human face’.

I wonder why do you think that it will be Russia and that Russia’s values can improve the world? What are they? Can Russia’s values change in the course of time under the pressure of globalisation?


Victor RYAZANOV:

At present many scientists and public figures criticize the existing model of globalisation for its ‘extremely tough’ character leading to the significant socio-economic differentiation between regions and countries. This ‘toughness’ reflects the very nature of existing economic system, based upon market dominating values and rational behaviour of people that is necessary for such market relations. The characteristics of Russian civilization and culture like the characteristics of many other non-western countries are such that they allow less dependency upon values of market civilizations dominating today. It could help to put market relations in certain socio-cultural frameworks.


That is why the promotion of Russian values to a great extent can be understood as one of the possible and perspective variants for reducing the acute contradictions of the contemporary global world. They coincide in many respects with the alternative projects for restructuring global relations. The old historical roots of these values allow us to hope that they have a high potential of self-regenerating capable of resisting powerful external influence and at the same time to provide the adaptation under the changing conditions of management.


The modern model of globalisation should be corrected due to the existing principal differences in the traditions of Western Christian (West European) economies and Eastern (Islamic and Buddhistic) economies:

a) for Western countries economics is the priority, meanwhile for Eastern countries preference is given to social economics;

b) Western economics is the “economics of production and exchange”, meanwhile Eastern economics is “economics of distribution and redistribution”;

c) Western economics is oriented upon innovations, meanwhile Eastern economics is oriented upon stability;

d) the financial sector in Western economics becomes the leading one in the course of time, meanwhile Eastern economics tends to have the economics of a non-financial type.

 

The list of such different characteristics in economic arrangement reflecting civilizational peculiarities can be continued. As far as Russian economics is concerned, historically, it was closer to the “Eastern model”. However, during two centuries of economic reforms (19-20th centuries) having preserved some peculiar Russian features it acquired some parameters of a “western model” at the same time. It means that the Russian experience can be useful as a real confirmation of the possibility of the synthesis between “western” and “eastern” values.


Glossary

Acronym: Is a graphical abbreviation.


Allegory: Is the expression of the idea with the help of naming a real thing or using an allegorical representation of a real event or thing.


Alliteration: A consonant usually used at the beginning of the word and is repeated in succeeding words to produce a certain effect.


Anachronism: Refers to a situation in which people say, do, or see something that is inconsistent with the time they live in.


Anti-foundationalist Interpretive theory: Questions the claims to true knowledge because it considers that all knowledge depends on our interpretation of the world that is why the knowledge is always provisional and can be contested. It claims that all political theories and political analyses have a certain normative content and purpose depending on the aim of the narrator. Politics is treated by Interpretive theory as the contest of narrations which are used by political agents. The narration which wins determines the access to the political power.


Anti-foundationalist ontology: Means that the researcher denies that any phenomenon exists independently from our interpretation and claims that all social phenomena are socially constructed and determined by the historic time.


Antonymy and antithesis: Is a semantic contrast.


Archaic word: When a word is no longer in general use but not absolutely obsolete.


Authority: The ability to affect the actions or predispositions of people to act because people feel obliged and find it right and correct to comply.


Blending: Is one word made of two words.


Behaviouralism: The study of politics that focuses on political behaviour. This approach is used mainly for the analysis of the processes of politics associated with mainstream politics and government. The basis is positivist epistemology engaged in the generation of general laws and some theoretical statements that can be falsified. It claims to be value-free, neutral and detached from ideologies. It has negative attitude to the normative political theory.


Case study design: Comprehensive and in-depth study of a single case


Causal relationship: When the change in one variable causes the change in the other one.


Colloquialism: Is informal or conversational language.


Contract and Consent: The political theory that governments should exist and operate only with the approval of the governed.


Critique: A critical evaluation of a piece of literature


Decision makers: Those people in government who confront issues and make public policy.


Democracy: A system of government in which the people rule either directly or indirectly over themselves.


Deterrence: The use of nuclear threat for preventing the war.


Direct observation: A data collection method in which the researcher directly observes the behaviour or physical traces of the bahaviour.


Distributive policy: Policy involving the provision of benefits to citizens.


Economic security: When the nation-state has relatively strong economy.


Elite theory (elitism): Theory that claims that despite the procedural possibility of all people to participate in the governing in the democratic state a very small minority participates actively in politics and makes all important governmental decisions.


Ellipsis: Means that parts of sentences or words are left out but can nevertheless be understood or inferred.


Empirical research: Is based on the collection of observable data and working out causal relationship so that to create a theory with a predictive force.


Empirical theory: Theory that relies on perception, experience, and behaviour.


Empirical verification: Demonstration by means of objective observation that a statement is true.


Epiphany: Is a literary device in which a character experiences an unexpected flash of understanding about the true nature of a person or situation, deeply altering his or her perception of that individual or event.


Epistemology: Theory of knowledge that studies the foundations of knowledge or how we can know that we, indeed, know.


Equality: The principle that all individuals have moral worth and are entitled to fair treatment under the law.


Euphemism: Is the substitution of words denoting something rough, unpleasant or for some other reasons unmentionable (taboo) by words of mild or vague connotations to express it.


Feminism: Has different trends but all of them claim that personal can be political and women must be more engaged in politics. As for the Normative theory feminists consider that the gender issues must be studied more attentively by the political Normative theory.


Flashback: Is a narrative technique in which a narrator or character interrupts the present time and returns to the past.


Foundationalist ontology: Means that the world/phenomenon exists independently from our interpretation, it is “out there” and we must acknowledge it.


Globalisation: Process of engagement in different spheres of societal life on the global scale.


Historism: The thing named is no longer used or does not exist but the word is still used.


Hyperbole: An exaggerated statement expressing an intensely emotional attitude.


Hypothesis: Explanation or theory which has not yet been proved to be correct.


Ideology: Is a system of political, legal, ethical, aesthetical, religious and philosophical coherent views and ideas which influence the behaviour of people.


Imagery: Is used to create vivid pictures that our senses (sight, touch, smell, hearing, and taste) respond to.


Independent viarable: The phenomenon thought to influence, affect, or cause some other phenomenon.


Indirect observation: Observation of physical traces of behaviour.


International organization: Organizations made up of two or more sovereign states. They usually meet regularly and have a permanent staff.


Inference: The reader arrives at the conclusion by himself after deducing the writer’s meaning when the writer does not want to be direct and leaves the reader to decide by himself what he wanted to say.


International relations: The interactions, rules, and processes that exist between sovereign states and other international actors.


International system: Any collection of independent political entities which interact with considerable frequency and according to regularized process.


Interpretist epistemology: Is based on the idea that we cannot establish the real world and can only interpret the world or establish our own interpretation.


Insitutionalism: Concentrates on the rules, norms and values of political institutions that govern the political society, usually is concerned with mainstream politics. This theory tends to connect empirical analysis and normative theory. Institutionalism treats political science as an organized knowledge empirically grounded, based on theory and responding to people’s demand.


Literature review: A part of the research process when a researcher examines and assesses the existing publications on his topic.


Litotes: The reverse figure to hyperbole or understatement.


Majoritarian model of democracy: The classical theory of democracy in which government by the people is interpreted as government by the majority of the people.


Marxism: Considers politics as a struggle between social groups/social classes based on the economic position (or ownership of the modes of production) and committed to the improvement of the economic position of the oppressed social groups or classes.

It is based on the critical realist approach and highlights the existence of unobservable structures that influence historical events. The aim is to change the world and make it better for the oppressed. Marxism appreciates the Normative theory if it is developing in this direction.


Metaphor: Is a transfer of the name based on the association of similarity and thus is actually a hidden comparison.


Methodology: Is a system of methods and principles.


Method: Is a means of achieving an aim.


Metonymy: Is based on association of contiguity.


Nation-state: A self-ruling political entity having its own territory, with residents considering themselves a nation and having more or less horizontal relationship within the state.


Neologism: Is a new word or an expression created for new things irrespective of their scale of importance.


Normative theory: Evaluative, value-laden, concerned with the question what is right/good and what is bad/wrong in the societal life. It prescribes what ought to be or what ought to do.


Ontology: Theory of Being (what is or what exists).


Open-ended question: A question with no response alternative from which a respondent may choose.


Operational definition: The rules by which a concept is measured and scores assigned.


Pluralist model: An interpretation of democracy in which government by the people means government by people operating through competing interest groups.


Oxymoron:

The combination of words (meanings) which are impossible to combine in reality.


Policy analysis: The evaluation of policy and its correlation with goals.


Policy implication: The predicted effect of the policy.


Political system: A set of interrelated institutions that link people with government. Any persistent pattern of human relationship that involves, to a significant extent, control, influence, power, or authority.


Politics: The process that determines who gets and what, when, and how in the society/international system; or struggle for power.


Postbehaviouralism: The use of a positivist approach of studying with a researcher’s values when presenting policy implications.


Positivist epistemology: Is based on causal relationship, direct observation and development of explanatory or even predictive models. We can establish real world through empirical observation like in natural sciences using methods of natural sciences.


Power: The ability in politics to control or change the behaviour of human beings in a way favoured by the power-wielder.


Prediction: The application of explanation to events in the future. The ability to correctly anticipate future events.


Rational Choice Theory: Is concerned with conditions for collective action and choice. It is close to behavouralism and is engaged in working out general laws with predictive power. Claims to be value-free, neutral and detached from ideologies and be able to teach how to organize politics. Negative attitude to the Normative political theory.


Realist epistemology: Is based on the combination of a positivist approach (direct observation) and structuralist approach (unobservable structure which can produce a crucial effect upon the observable events).