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The Guardian: UK plans to cut CO2 doomed to fail – scientists
James Randerson, science correspondent
Monday March 5, 2007
An independent scientific audit of the UK's climate change policies predicts that the government will fall well below its target of a 30% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020 - which means that the country will not reach its 2020 milestone until 2050.
The report condemns government forecasts on greenhouse gas emissions as "very optimistic" and projects that the true reduction will be between 12 and 17%, making little difference to current CO2 emission levels.
The report is based on an analysis of the government's attempts to meet climate change targets. The authors argue that because much policy is based on voluntary measures, the predicted outcomes cannot be relied upon. It is released on the day the environment minister, David Miliband, delivers a speech on the UK's transition to a "post-oil economy".
He will tell an audience at the University of Cambridge: "Al Gore says climate change is a planetary emergency. It is. But it is more than that. It is a humanitarian emergency - a threat to the security and survival of people, not just nature.
"The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of 'oil independence' and more the end of oil dependence."
But critics of the government's record on climate change argue that despite the green-friendly rhetoric, it has failed to deliver sufficient reductions. "The policies are all going in the right direction and are all relatively well thought out, they just have to be enforced," said Mark Maslin, director of University College London's Environment Institute and one of the audit study's authors. "In most sectors all the policies at the moment are voluntary. So basically nobody bothers." The study was commissioned for Channel 4's Dispatches, which will screen a documentary -Greenwash - on the findings presented by George Monbiot tonight.
The 30% cut by 2020 is a self-imposed government target that goes beyond the UK's obligations under the Kyoto protocol - the figures are relative to 1990 levels. The UCL team's 12 to 17% figure is based on downgrading the predictions considering the likely effects of policies.
For example, the government predicts that national transport emissions will rise by 4m tonnes. But this assumes that car manufacturers deliver on voluntary fuel efficiency targets. Such milestones have never been hit. The team also believes the government's projections for the number of car journey's in 2020 are an underestimate. The report predicts that emissions from national transport will actually rise by between 7m and 13m tonnes.
In the domestic energy sector, one much-trumpeted government policy is a set of new building regulations to make all new homes built after 2016 "zero carbon". However, the UCL auditors are sceptical that this policy will deliver because of poor enforcement.
The researchers also believe domestic energy consumption will continue to rise faster than the government predicts due to demand for more energy intensive products, such as plasma televisions.
A Defra spokeswoman said the UK had already beaten its 2012 emissions target of 12.5% under the Kyoto protocol and that the latest figures for 2005 show a reduction of 15.3% on 1990 levels. "The action we have taken to cut our greenhouse gas emissions at the same time as maintaining economic growth makes us an exemplar. But we are not complacent and recognise that to reach our long term goals we need to do more," she said.
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Independent Online: Miliband: 'Time for a green industrial revolution'
By Ben Russell, Political Correspondent
Published: 05 March 2007
Britain needs a new industrial revolution to transform itself into the low carbon economy needed to make radical cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, David Miliband, the Environment Secretary, will say today.
He will call for drastic action to cut oil consumption to combat the "humanitarian emergency" of global warming. And Mr Miliband will insist that Britain needs to pioneer new technology such as "capturing" carbon emissions from power stations, developing biofuels and new electric cars, and to radically cut demand for domestic power to hit the Kyoto target to cut carbon by 60 per cent by 2050.
The Environment Secretary will use a lecture at Cambridge University to call for radical action to transform the economy as he prepares to publish a draft Climate Change Bill next week. The Bill will set out tough interim targets for cutting emissions and commit the Government to an annual progress report to increase political pressure for change. Ministers have ruled out binding annual targets for cuts in carbon dioxide emissions as unworkable, but insist that they will have tough interim benchmarks to ensure there is no let-up in the drive to cut greenhouse gases. Sources said that a full Climate Change Bill will be debated by MPs before the autumn, possibly before Easter.
Mr Miliband will say: "In the 19th century, Britain pioneered the transition to an industrial economy. The Industrial Revolution brought together invention and science, a culture of enterprise, and political leadership from our great cities and national government. In the 21st century, we are again a transition economy. We need the same combination if we to make a new transition: from a high carbon to low-carbon society.
"We need political leadership at a local, national and European level prepared to make bold, long term, decisions."
He will add: "It is clear finally that if we carry on with business as usual, with more countries growing in wealth and population, the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase dramatically, with catastrophic consequences."
He will argue that the "vast majority" of carbon emissions must by covered by a global carbon market.
Mr Miliband will praise the Swedish government for setting up a commission on oil independence which aims to cut petrol consumption by 50 per cent by 2020 and called on Britain to create a "post-oil economy" within 15 to 20 years. And he will call for all new coal-fired power stations to be capable of using carbon capture technology and the promotion of wave, wind and solar generation.