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Павлик Христина Богданівна удк 330. 101. 541: 339. 132] (477) макроекономічний аналіз сукупної пропозиції в україні спеціальність 08. 00. 01 економічна теорія та історія економічної думки автореферат

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АННОТАЦИЯ


Павлык Х.Б. Макроэкономический анализ совокупного предложения в Украине. – Рукопись.

Диссертация на соискание ученой степени кандидата экономических наук по специальности 08.00.01 – экономическая теория и история экономической мысли – Львовский национальный университет имени Ивана Франко. Львов, 2008.

В диссертационной работе на примере экономики Украины рассмотрено теорию совокупного предложения. Значительное внимание уделено теоретико-методологическим основам исследования. Осуществлён анализ эволюции взглядов представителей основных школ и течений на совокупное предложение и его взаимосвязь с совокупным спросом. Раскрыты особенности формирования совокупного предложения в командно-административной, трансформационной и рыночной экономиках. Причины сокращения объема национального производства на начальных этапах переходного периода определены в контексте анализа факторов совокупного предложения. Рассмотрено влияние макроэкономической политики в Украине на динамику совокупного предложения. С помощью регрессионного анализа обнаружены важнейшие источники увеличения совокупного предложения в украинской экономике в 2000-2007 годах. Обоснованы основные направления расширения совокупного предложения в отечественной экономике как основы стабильного экономического роста.

Ключевые слова: совокупное предложение, совокупный спрос, объем национального производства, уровень цен, инфляция издержек, инвестиции, макроэкономическая политика.


SUMMARY


Pavlyk Khrystyna. Macroeconomic analysis of aggregate supply in Ukraine. - Manuscript.

The dissertation to apply for the candidate of economic sciences degree in speciality 08.00.01 – economic theory and history of economic thought – The Ivan Franko National University of Lviv. Lviv, 2008.

The dissertation covers the analysis of aggregate supply using the case of Ukrainian economy. Structure of the dissertation is as follows. Introductory part illustrates the importance of the current research, states the goals, provides short description of the data sources, presents approbation and novelty of results. The first chapter discusses theoretical and methodological aspects of the macroeconomic analysis of aggregate supply. The second chapter estimates the dynamics and factors of aggregate supply in Ukraine. The third chapter considers perspectives of the stable aggregate supply growth in Ukraine. Conclusions are summarized in the final part. Following the conclusions, references and appendixes are presented.

The emergence of the aggregate supply concept and its subsequent development are examined. Since supply represents the ability to produce, which is a basic activity that enables permanent economic growth, the study of this category goes back to a period of the economy origin. The dissertation summarizes works of prominent economists who contributed to the study of production and supply. Special attention is paid to the golden era of practical approach to the supply - supply-side economics.

Based on the deep literature review the dissertation investigates the polemic concerning the shape of the aggregate supply curve. The verticality of the long-run aggregate supply (ASLR) cannot be validated for the Ukrainian economy due to the limited time series. For the short-run aggregate supply curve (ASSR) we compare diverse methodological approaches: based on the level of economy development (cost for unit of production) and based on the different types of market failures (imperfect information, worker-misperception, sticky price and sticky-wage models).

Analysis of the criticism of AS-AD is used to prove the validity of the model. It is shown that a standard AS-AD is an expectable model to study the second stage of transition, while to describe the period of hyperinflation it is worth to bring in an alternative approach to the aggregate supply. Based on the bifurcation level of inflation, this approach confirms that the state regulation can have positive as well as negative effects. It also shows that stable macroeconomic equilibrium can be achieved either with or without policy regulations. The first chapter also classifies factors of aggregate supply and elaborates their transmission mechanism in transitional and market economies.

Analysis of the peculiarities of aggregate supply in command economy revealed weaknesses of its economic mechanism. It is concluded that soviet economy had never been on verge of its production possibilities and aggregate supply was shifting left for decades. Thus deep and protracted depression in the Ukrainian economy was caused by two groups of determinants: inherited from the command system and those which appeared after renewal of state independence.

Transition foresees the formation of market mechanism as a result of price liberalization and creation of the market environment. The dissertation studies macroeconomic policies as the main tools used by the state for aggregate supply stimulation under transitional conditions. Until 1993 expansionary fiscal and monetary policies were used in Ukraine but, as it is shown, they resulted in hyperinflation and national production collapse. It is shown that the change in policy direction from stabilization to expansion should have been based on the principles of sustainable development. Since 1994 significant changes took place but situation remained difficult. Weaknesses of modern tax system are detected. It is proposed to speed up structural reformation of national economy by activation of tax reforms. State budget is analyzed and author draws a conclusion about the necessity to form a new mechanism of government regulation. For the future production increase monetary policy should focus on inflation targeting.

The dissertation argues that the current situation in Ukraine is not a transitional miracle but the result of both the diminishing force of factors which provoked output collapse and the increasing weight of positive market factors. Macroeconomic data from the IMF International Financial Statistics database is used to elaborate the sources of transitional recovery in Ukraine. Surprisingly, they are similar to those used by E. Prescott to explain myth of economic growth in the 1990s in the US. Analysis includes such issues as capital, innovation, NAIRU, migration, internal macroeconomic policy and external conditions.

Finally the dissertation discusses the policy implications of findings regarding future transition path. As necessary conditions of macroeconomic growth we emphasize the need to stimulate aggregate supply by innovation and structural reorganization. Lessons from other countries which implemented policies focused on aggregate supply are used to design recommendation for credible policy in Ukraine. Sustainable growth in Ukraine can be achieved by implementation of macroeconomic regulation oriented more at stimulation of potential level of output rather thаn the rates of real GDP growth.

Key words: aggregate supply and demand, output and inflation levels, sustainable growth in transitional economies, investment, macroeconomic policy.


Підписано до друку 07.02.08 р. Формат 60х90/16.

Папір офсетний. Облік.-вид. арк. 1,0.

Тираж 100 прим. Зам. № 55.


Видруковано у видавничому центрі

Львівського національного університету імені Івана Франка

79000 м. Львів, вул. Д. Дорошенка, 41