The Russian transition to a market system
Курсовой проект - Экономика
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s necessary, but to develop and reform the economy should be based on domestic specifics on the historic traditions and socio-political mentality, manifested in the pursuit of social justice, mutual collegiality of the Russian people.
Chapter 2. Strategic reference points of long-term economic development
2.1 Strategic reference points of long-term social and economic development
In the middle of this decade in Russia largely completed the transition to a market economic system.system of basic legal norms and other institutions to ensure the functioning of market relations between economic entities. Earned competitive markets for goods and services, capital and labour resources. Actual there is already debugging of these institutions, ensuring their effective operation, high international competitiveness.high degree of openness of the Russian economy. The foreign trade turnover amounted to 45% of GDP (2007), which is one of the highest rates for advanced economies.a stable macroeconomic stability. The Russian economy is shielded from external shocks, international reserve assets of the Russian Federation, have exceeded the end of 2007 470 billion dollars.10
Formed a thick layer growing companies successfully compete in domestic and foreign markets, and actively raise capital for its development. The capitalization of Russian companies has reached nearly 130% of GDP and has a tendency to further increase. The Russian stock market has become a real factor in attracting investment and economic growth. Among the population began to form a broad social layer of investors and shareholders.tendencies of social confrontation in society, observed in the nineties. Develop civil society institutions. Reduced political and economic risks of doing business. The international recognition of Russias success shows her receiving the status of market economy and the investment credit rating.a new government system, based on the regulatory separation of powers enshrined the Russian Federation, Russian Federation and municipal entities. In the process of government use of modern methods and tools for strategic planning and performance management, is their relation to budgetary decision-making mechanisms, primarily within the program-oriented approach.of systemic changes in the economy is integrally expressed in the parameters of the socio-economic development.years Russian economy has demonstrated sustained high economic growth (around 7 percent per year), far ahead of the dynamics of the global economy (4.7 percent).the decline in production and consumption of the nineties. In 2007, GDP amounted to 1991 level 110%. In this radically changed the structure of the economy in favour of industries focused on market demand.volume of GDP (at purchasing power parity) has exceeded 1.9 trillion. U.S. dollars. According to this indicator Russia entrenched in the eight leading countries of the world., in recent years, Russia has regained the status of a strong economic power, affirming their right to stay in the group of major countries - world leaders as the dynamics of development and scale economies. In this case, the conquest of the positions of one of the leaders of world economic growth, market-based economic institutions and sustained improvement in living standards.
2.2 Challenges of the upcoming long term
In the middle of the decade the Russian economy is facing long-term systemic challenges that reflect both international trends and domestic barriers to development.first challenge - increased global competition, encompassing not only the traditional markets for goods, capital, technology and manpower, but also includes a system of national governance, support for innovation, human development.main characteristics of the global economy have a major impact on the socio-economic processes in Russia in the next 10-15 years will be11:
A dynamic, global economic growth (an average of about 4% per year), which places high demands on the pace and quality of Russian economic growth needed to increase its economic weight in the world, Providing regional leadership and to reduce the backlog by the developed countries;
The emergence of China and India in the main locomotive of global growth, The emergence of new global centres of economic development in Asia and Latin America;
Overcoming barriers to the growth of energy through energy efficiency and increased use of alternative energy which tends to rise in price of energy;
strengthening growth restrictions Associated with environmental factors, lack of fresh water and climate change, which creates additional opportunities for Russia with its vast reserves of fresh water and ecologically safe areas;
preservation, and probably gain imbalances in global trade, capital movements That will help change the course of world currencies, and rebuilding institutions of the world economy (World Economic Order);
aging population in developed countries against the backdrop of rapid population growth in developing countries will intensify the global migration processes and increase the burden on social services inlayed systems of developed countries.upcoming period is characterized by the restructuring of the world economy associated with the change in the balance between its economic centres, the increasing role of regional economic alliances. Further development of the world economy will be determined by the balance between the prevailing trend of progressive globalization of world economy and the trends of regionalization as a response to growing tensions between the worlds centres of power and the accumulation of imbalances in global trade and financial system. In this case, further accumulation of imbalances in the global financial system may increase the risks of global financial crisis and a sharp slowdown in the global economy;the Russian economy, such restructuring, on the one hand, it creates new opportunities in the development of foreign economic integration, Strengthening and expanding position in world markets, on the other hand - creates a threatening to drive Russia to the periphery of the European economy, which, combined with the weakness of our exports and economic positions in Asian markets can dramatically worsen the trade balance of Russia and the possibility to import technology and capital. The answer to this challenge necessitates the competitiveness of the Russian economy, the capacity for renewal and innovation investment.second challenge - the expected new wave of technological change that dramatically magnifies the role of innovation in socio-economic development and devalues many of the traditional factors of growth.the next decade, developed countries will move to form a new technological basis of economic systems based on the use of the latest achievements in biotechnology, informatics and nanotechnology, including health care and other areas of human development.Russia, the availability of research capacity and high-tech production creates the conditions for the benefits associated with the proliferation of new technologies12:
Providing technological leadership in a number of critical areas;
Formation of complex high-tech industries and expanding position in the global markets of high technology products;
Upgrading of traditional industries Including through the deployment of a globally-oriented specialized production.the same time, the lag in developing new technologies of the last generation can dramatically reduce the global competitiveness of the Russian economy and throw it on the periphery of world development.third challenge - the increasing role of human capital as a key factor in economic development.of competitiveness of a modern innovation-based economy increasingly depends on the quality of professional staff, their level of socialization and cooperation. Russia will not be able to maintain its competitive position in the global economy due to cheap labor and the economy on the development of education and health. Russias response to this challenge involves overcoming the current negative trends in human development, which requires13:
Stabilization of the Russian population and employment in the economy through the effective management of migration and changing lifestyles, improving the nations health and level of social optimism;
Well-functioning industry that determine the quality of human capital (education, health, Housing) high standards of living;
Transformation of the middle class of Russian society in its dominant force, the reduction of social inequalities;
to achieve the level of developed countries in terms of labor productivity, which will be determined not so much the "assets-out" period of industrial development How many levels of education and creativity of the person;fourth challenge, generated mainly by internal, rather than global factors - it is the exhaustion of sources of export-commodity development, based on a forced build fuel and raw material exports, Production of goods for domestic consumption due to additional loading capacity in undervalued exchange rate, low cost of production factors - labor, fuel, electricity. And the crisis export raw model of the Russian economy can be greatly accelerated if the slowdown in global demand for hydrocarbons in connection with the active development of alternative fuels and energy, and inhibition of growth of the economies of China and India.the new internal limits on growth due to the insufficient development of transport and energy infrastructure and shortage of qualified engineers and skilled workers in the labor market. While maintaining the existing trends effect of this f