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Mahatma Gandhi. 1885 the creation of the National Congress of India.

The revolutionary phase of the third epochal cycle is connected with the struggle of India for independence. 1948 India dominion. 1950 the Constitution of India. The egression from the British Commonwealth.

The involutionary stage. 1962 the Indochina war. 1971 the war between India and Pakistan. The Symla treaties. 1964 the death of J. Nehru. 1965-1988 Indira Gandhi.

The co-evolutionary stage. 1991 the economic reform. May, 1998 India carried its first nuclear weapon test.

The evolutionary period of the cycle is only taking its start and will develop in the 21st century.

8.11. Japan

The revolutionary phase of the first epochal cycle 660 BC the official date of establishment of the emperors dynasty. Shintoism. The relation of the emperor with Amaterasu, the Goddess of Sun.

The involutionary period of the cycle V century BC V century AD. Traditionalism. The influence of the Chinese social-cultural tradition. 572-621 AD Shotoku Taishi. Ranks. The beginning of the co-evolutionary phase. The spread of Zen Buddhism. 887-1068 the rule of the clan of Fujiwara. 895 the closure of Japan for foreigners. 958-1587 the prohibition of coinage.

The evolutionary period. 1192-1333 the shogunate of Minamoto. The samurai is the backing of the state machine. 1274-1281 the reflections of Mongol attempts to invade Japan. 1336-1477 the wars between the clans of the samurai.

The revolutionary phase of the second epochal cycle. 1603-1867 the shogunate of Tokugawa. 1615 the political unification of Japan Edo (Tokyo) is the capital. 1636 the closure of Japan for the European missionaries.

The involutionary period 1688-1703 the epoch of genroku the blossom of the traditional Japanese urban culture.

The co-evolutionary phase. 1853 Perry (USA) opened Japan for the foreigners. 1867-1868 the revolution of Meiji. A successful bourgeois-democratic revolution in Japan that turned the country into the industrial West in the East. The evolutionary stage of the cycle is connected with the rapid modernization. The consolidation of the Japanese military power allowed it to conduct an active expansive policy in Asia. 1894-1895 the war between Japan and China.

The evolutionary period of the second epochal cycle. 1904-1907 the war between Japan and Russia. 1910-1945 the annexation of Korea. 1931 - 1945 the control over China. Conception Asia for Asians. 1941 -1945 the war with the USA. The defeat of Japan.

The revolutionary period of the third epochal cycle. 1946-1949 the occupation by the USA a new push to the industrial modernization of Japan, strengthening its strategic alliance with the USA. 1951 San Francisco the peace treaty. 1951-1953 the Korean war. The involutionary period, which began in the 1960s, turned Japan into an industrial superpower, the third financial-economic world center after the USA and the European Union.

Inner social processes are pushing Japan on the way to the co-evolutionary transient processes. The indications are as follows: the financial crisis of 1997 and the projected reforms in the country preparations to a review of the Constitution dictated by the United States of America, the deep crisis of the Liberal-Democratic party guiding the country approximately fifty years, and so on.

8.12. The United States of America

The USA represent an unique phenomenon in the worlds history. In fact, they have turned from a colony to the leading worlds state for 300 years. This fact testifies the specificity of development of the national epochal cycle. The country has come to the flourishing with a rapid rate of movement along the history. The other leading European countries spent millenniums to go through this process.

The revolutionary phase of the first epochal cycle is connected with establishment of the British colonies by the most passionary migrants from Great Britain (1607). The transportation of the social experience of emigrants from the Old World to the American soil created a generally favorable ground for the dynamic development of a new complex nation. The involutionary period of its formation covered the latter half of the 17th century. The urban culture developed here faster than in Europe. Both the urban and country cultures were free from pre-capitalistic anachronisms. On the other side, the inner tendencies of the involutionary period actively stimulated the development of the extensive slave-owning forms of the economic development of the Southern states of the country, creating pre-conditions to the following conflict between the slave-owning agrarian South and industrially growing North.

The co-evolutionary stage is identified with events of the War for Independence (1776-1783). A regular consequence of the transient moment in the development became the Declaration of Independence (1776). One could speak about the stable evolutionary-democratic development of the USA since 1783. The most outstanding historic personalities were as follows: George Washington (1732-1799) one of the parents-founders and the first President of the USA; Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826), who strengthened the constitutional order in the USA; Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790) the ideologist of the American pragmatism. The positions of the USA in the Southern America were consolidated by the Monroe Doctrine (1823) that gave an indirect support to the fight for national independence of Latin-American states against the European colonial powers. The foundation of the leading political parties of the USA, Democratic (1828) and Republican (1854) ones, and the political activity of the Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865) may also be referred to this period.

The revolutionary stage of the second epochal cycle is identified with the peripetias of the War between the States (1861-1865) which led to the abolishment of slavery by giving an additional impulse to development of the national market and accelerated the organic process of countrys industrialization.

The strengthening of the involutionary tendencies provided for the economic growth of the USA to the end of the 19th century and expanded the US possibilities in the sphere of external policy. After the war between America and Spain (1898), the expansion of the USA to Latin America is enlarging, which led to the establishment of political control over the majority of states of this continent. The following content of the evolutionary period became the participation of the USA in the First World War. However, the victory of isolationists over the line of President Woodraw Wilson (1919) weakened countrys external political positions in the League of Nations for some time.

Events of the Great Depression (1929-1933) became a turning (co-evolutionary) point in the history of the USA. The country entered the evolutionary period of the second epochal cycle since the times of the New Deal of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1933-1945). After the Second World War (1939-1945), the country turns into a superpower. This process was favored by the creation of A-bomb (1942-1945), creation of the NATO (1949), and realization of the Marshall plan (1947-1953) provided for a significant growth of the West-European economies.

The war of the US in Vietnam (1964-1973), youth protests (1968-1975), the deepening of racial problems, the Watergate process that ended in the resignation of President Richard Nixon (1974), the victory in the cold war, the beginning of the transformational processes in Central and Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the USSR (1989-1991), the presidency of Bill Clinton (1992-2000) which led the USA to the maximally possible status of the last worlds state all this gives serious grounds to assume that the USA are standing on the threshold of revolutionary events of the third epochal cycle, their probability growing since the beginning of the 21st century.

The overall prognosis of development of the situation in the above-mentioned countries of our research sampling may be presented as the following table.

 

#CountryNumber of completed epochal cyclesDeveloping Epochal CyclePeriod (Phase of the Developing Epochal Cycle)Probability of Actualization of the Prospective Transient Period (Revolution/Co-evolution) with the beginning of
the 21st century

  1. Vatican67Evol.High (Revol.)
  2. Italy45Evol.High (Revol.)
  3. Germany34Evol.High (Revol.)
  4. Great Britain34Evol.High (Revol.)
  5. France23Evol.It is difficult to define
  6. Ukraine23Co-evol.Actual (Со-evol.)
  7. Russia12Co-evol.Actual (Со-evol.)
  8. Belarus12Revol.Actual (Revol.)
  9. China34Evol.Actual (Со-evol.)
  10. India23Evol.Low
  11. Japan23Co-evol.High (Со-evol.)
  12. USA12Evol.High (Revol.)
    13. The analysis of the social development with use of the methodics of universal epochal cycle in the research of a situation at the level of specific national state formations gives certain grounds to assume that, with the beginning of the new millennium, there is a growing probability that Western countries (the countries of the European historical-cultural area, in particular, Italy, Germany, Great Britain, and the USA) enter the period of crisis new social revolutions which will open new horizons of social development to the world. The establishment of a new-type policy, devoid of the former party-class heredity will be the semantic content of the naissant situation in this region. At the same time, the situation in the Asian region (taking into a