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ЭКОНОМИКАИА BLOOMBERG (USA), February 5, 2009, TENGE MAY BE DEVALUED FURTHER ON OIL AND BANKS, UNICREDIT SAYSKazakhstan may be forced to allow further devaluation in the tenge should oil prices continue to decline and local banks seek more government bailouts, according to UniCredit SpA. The former Soviet republic allowed its managed currency to weaken as much as 22 percent against the dollar yesterday in a bid to preserve reserves and rebalance the economy. Kazakhstan’s economic growth may slow to 1 percent this year, according to the government, as the global financial crisis saps demand for energy and banks struggle to refinance debt. “Continued deterioration of bank asset quality could trigger another round of capital flight and bank runs,” analysts Julia Bushueva and Vladimir Osakovsky wrote in a research note today. “A further decline in oil prices could further undermine the country’s trade balance and current account.” The tenge weakened 0.3 percent to 150.0900 per dollar by 8:58 p.m. in Almaty. The central bank said yesterday it will buy and sell foreign currency to defend the new 150 per dollar level of the tenge. They may be successful in stabilizing the currency in the “near term,” because the shallowness of local financial markets means policy makers can better prevent speculative attacks on the tenge, UniCredit said. While the devaluation will make foreign debt repayments more difficult for Kazakh banks, it benefits companies in the mining and metals sectors such as copper miner Kazakhmys Plc, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. and Kazmunaygaz National Co., the state- run energy company, the note said. “The metals and mining sector is set to benefit the most from devaluation, as nearly all of Kazakh miners’ costs are incurred in tenge,” the analysts wrote. New York oil prices have slumped 72 percent from a July record to $40.23 a barrel. UniCredit forecasts Kazakhstan’s economy will contract by 1.3 percent this year, the note said. ИА BLOOMBERG (USA), February 4, 2009, By Nariman GIZITDINOV, KAZAKH CENTRAL BANK DEVALUES TENGE 18%, ENDS SUPPORT (UPDATE2)Kazakhstan’s central bank devalued the tenge by 18 percent, joining Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in abandoning attempts to prop up exchange rates as currency reserves dwindle. Central Asia’s largest energy producer will keep its currency at about 150 tenge to the dollar from Feb. 4, the Almaty-based National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan said in a statement. It may fluctuate about 3 percent either side of that rate. The tenge fell 15 percent to 143.98 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange, from 122.32 per dollar yesterday. Kazakhstan is devaluing its currency as local banks and companies struggle to refinance debt and a recession looms. The nation, holder of 3.2 percent of the world’s oil reserves according to BP Plc, is slowing after a decade-long boom during which the economy expanded an average of 10 percent a year. The government now predicts expansion of 1 percent this year. “The story on why they are devaluing is very similar to Russia and in certain instances, it’s even more extreme,” said ссылка скрыта, head of emerging-market currency at UBS AG in London. “The swing from a current account surplus to deficit is very extreme. There’s also a very real possibility of negative growth this year.” The central bank’s decision comes a day after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast a 19 percent devaluation. The currency may fall to about 175 by the end of March, analysts at Societe Generale SA said Feb. 2. Nomura Holdings Inc. said last month Kazakhstan should allow a 50 percent decline. Rate Cut The central bank is “walking away from supporting the tenge exchange rate in its previous corridor to save foreign currency reserves and support local producers’ competitiveness,” its statement said. Kazakhstan depleted its foreign currency and gold ссылка скрыта by 6 percent in January as it sold more dollars. The holdings slumped $1.6 billion in January from $19.4 billion in 2008, the central bank said in a separate statement today, citing preliminary data. The central bank will cut the ссылка скрыта to 9.5 percent tomorrow and reduce its reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage point, Chairman ссылка скрыта said at a press briefing. “Kazakhstan most probably may not need to provide additional help to commercial banks with their payment of foreign debt after devaluation,” Marchenko said. “If the situation will become worse the state may step in to help banks,” he said, without elaborating. Subprime Fallout Kazakhstan devalued its currency by about a quarter over two days in April 1999 in response to Russia’s depreciation of its own currency a year earlier. The central bank resumed its management of the tenge in 2007, nine years after letting it trade freely, as the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis starved Kazakh banks of credit and slowed the nation’s economy. Countries around the region have been devaluing their currencies as the seizure in credit markets and prospect of a global recession starve emerging markets of foreign investment. Ukraine allowed the hryvnia to slide 47 percent to the dollar since August and Belarus devalued its ruble by 21 percent on Jan. 6 after pegging the currency to a basket made up of dollars, euros and Russian rubles on Jan. 2. |