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The sum of the elements above the maindiagonal of the matrix defines the share of those enterprises where theeffective demand replaced the non-monetary demand. The sum below the maindiagonal defines the share of enterprises with a reverse replacement - ofeffective demand by non-monetary demand. On the basis of the extradiagonal sumsthe replacement index can be calculated which is analogous to the coefficientof the shift in forecasts suggested by Kawasaki and Zimmermann2. Thereplacement index is calculated as the ratio of the difference betweenabove-the-diagonal and below-the-diagonal elements to their sum and can acquirethe values within the interval between–1 and +1. Positive valuesdemonstrate a replacement of the non-monetary demand by the effective demand,negative values - a reverse process. The greater are the absolute values of thecoefficient, the more intensive is the replacement process. The changes of thereplacement index for the years 2000-2001 (when the monthly data on thedynamics of all types of demand are available) are shown in Fig. 20. The mostintensive ousting of non-monetary operations in Russian industry occurred inOctober 2000. Then non-monetary transactions were replaced by monetary ones in36% of the Russian enterprises while a reverse ratio was seen in 14%. Afterthat the growth rate of the effective demand began to fall dramatically whichresulted in January-February 2001 in an absolute reduction of the sales of theindustrial products for money. The replacement index fell by 0.53 points inthree months and in January acquired a negative value – the normal monetary demand againbegan to be replaced in Russian industry by non-monetary transactions. Inspring the situation returned to normal though not for a long time: the zerosales growth rates in June-July again dramatically reduced the intensity of thereplacement of non-monetary transactions. The August leap in the intensity ofsales growth revived the positive trends, and in October the most intensivereplacement of non-monetary operations in the whole year 2001 was registered.The negative tendencies in the demand area produced a dramatic fall of thisindex in November-December. In two months the index fell by 33 points butremained positive, i.e. non-monetary operations were being replaced by normaltransactions. In January 2002 the index became negative, just as it had beenthe year before.

Figure 20

The share of non-monetary transactions inthe realization of industrial products in 2001 displayed a stable tendency forreduction, especially in the first half of the year. As a result, the share ofbarter, bills and set-offs by the end of the year went down to 20-25%. Forcash, 75% of the product is realized (see Table 13).

Table 13

The share of cash, barter, bills andset-offs in total realization of product in the year 2001 in industry as awhole (%)

Shares of	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12
Cash	66	71	72	71	73	75	74	73	73	75	73	76
Barter	16	13	12	14	12	10	12	11	12	11	11	9
Bills and set-offs	16	14	14	13	14	13	13	14	13	12	14	11

Source: Surveys conducted by theIET.

The leader in the ousting of barter is theelectric power industry which increased the share of money from 52% in 2000(September) to 90% in 2001 (the average for that year). The second place, asfar as this index is concerned, is occupied by the construction materialsindustry (a growth from 31 to 57%). It can be noted that the latter value isthe worst among the branch-by-branch indices in the year 2001 (see Table 14).

Table 14

The share of cash in product salesin 2001 by branches (%)

Branches	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12
ElectricPower	85	91	90	90	87	97	94	82	95	91	95	88
Ferrous metallurgy	74	74	84	84	85	79	64	76	68	86	82	89
Non-ferrous metallurgy	77	85	71	83	82	83	74	67	72	85	67	45
Chemical and petrochemical	64	64	74	68	71	72	74	73	79	73	73	70
Machine-building	62	69	71	67	68	71	71	70	76	72	69	74
Timber, W/W and PULP/PAPER	65	67	66	64	70	63	68	69	61	64	62	69
Construction materials	51	49	55	56	57	54	63	57	69	60	62	65
Light	68	76	72	73	75	80	78	78	82	77	80	79
Food	81	72	68	76	75	80	77	82	76	79	79	84

Source: Surveys conducted by theIET.

Thus, the problem of barter and othernon-monetary surrogates which once used to be one of the most burdensome forindustry as well as for society as a whole is receding into the past. Theindustrial growth that has already been going on with varying degrees ofintensity for three years is acquiring a more and more normal, УmonetaryФcharacter. However, for several more years it will probably be impossible to doaway completely with barter, bills and set-offs in the turnover of industrialenterprises. And one of the reasons for this is the tremendous industrialpotential that has been accumulated in the times of planned economy is stillpreserved and burdens the enterprises’ management. This can be clearlygleaned from the estimates of the effective demand and production volumes madeby the enterprises according to the scale Уabove the normФ, УnormalФ, Уbelowthe normФ (see Fig. 21).

Figure 21

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