Книги по разным темам
Pages: | 1 | ... | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ... | 32 | 35.17
37.10
37.40
32.94
Dynamic ofarrears to consolidated Budget of Russia in 1996
Jan. 96
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept.
October
Novem.
Decem.
GDP (Rbl.trln.)
166
322
508
691
876
1066
1260
1403
1659
1819
2031
2256
Arrears total, Rbl.bn*
78717.9
80979.0
83740.8
105642
118040
115600
108655
127692
132311
135335
147138
128185
Inflation in % toDecember 1992
1829.2
1880.4
1933.1
1975.6
2007.2
2031.3
2045.5
2041.4
2047.5
2072.1
2111.
2141.04
Arrearsincrease
21928.4
2261.1
2761.8
21901.6
12398.5
-2440.8
-6944.9
19037.7
4618.9
3023.3
11803.7
-18953
MonthlyGDP
166
156
186
183
185
190
194
143
256
160
212
225
Arrears increase in %of monthly GDP
13.21
1.45
1.48
11.97
6.70
-1.28
-3.58
13.31
1.80
1.89
5.57
-8.42
Arrears increasedeflated
11.74
0.03
0.26
10.15
5.33
-1.90
-3.79
9.43
2.07
0.69
4.37
-9.81
Arrears total in % ofmonthly GDP
43.03
43.06
43.32
53.47
58.81
56.91
53.12
62.55
64.62
65.31
69.69
59.87
Arrears totaldeflated
47.42
51.91
45.02
57.73
63.81
60.84
56.01
89.30
51.68
84.58
69.41
56.97
* Thearrears were calculated using the methodology differing from the one usedbefore.
Several factors of the reduction of the taxinflows may be separated13.
1) The main reason for the reduction of theBudget incomes was the growth of the tax arrears. The real volume of arrearsfor January 1996 (see Tableа1.8) grew by 42.1%. However, in January, the RFState Fiscal Service changed the methodology of calculation of the tax arrears.If the older methodology is used to estimate the January growth, thecalculations yield 18.1%; if the new methodology is used for the monthscompared it yields 35.7%. The accumulated volume of arrears to the consolidatedBudget in constant prices grew by 37.4% in Januaryа1996, compared with January1995. It should be noted, that, in January 1995, the growth of the real volumeof arrears made 3.5% for the Federal Budget and 7.1% for the consolidatedBudget. To a large extent, this seasonal growth effect is due to the growth ofthe volume of the taxes charged in the first month of the followingquarter-year; this leads to the growth of the arrears at the lack of liquidassets.
The quantitative estimate of thecontribution of the arrears growth in the reduction of the tax inflows at thebeginning of 1966 is also complicated by the lack of the information on thestructure of the arrears growth. The latter, besides the taxes not transferredto the Budget for the liabilities of the current month, includes the penaltiesfor the non-fulfillment of the fiscal liabilities of the previousperiods.
The growth of the arrears was additionallyactivated by the badly thought over mechanism of grant of tax deferment fixedby the Presidential Decree of 19аJanuaryа1996. About 30,000 tax payers weregranted the deferment. Not less important was that the indebtedness newlycreated in the first quarter of 1996 did not influence the decision on thedeferment for the arrears accumulated before 1аJanuaryа1996.
However, even taking into account the changeof the methodology, the seasonal character of their dynamic, and the mechanismof grant of the deferment, one can say that the growth of the arrears inJanuaryа1996 was conditioned by the high political incertitude and was animportant factor for the taxation crisis.
2) The growth of the scales of the illegalevasion from the taxes payment in any ways, including, very important, bytransactions sing cash and not reflected in the accountancy, also became afactor of the tax inflows growth. An indirect confirmation of this is thegrowth of the share of cash in the money aggregate M2 in the first half year of1996 by 2.5 percentage points (see Tableа1.16).
3) Due to the serious enough growth of thedebtor’s indebtedness,the taxation basis for the profit tax and VAT reduced. As Tableа1.8 shows, atthe beginning of 1996, the volume of the debtor’s indebtedness grew sharply (from191% of the GDP in Decemberа1995 to about 280% of the GDP in the first half of1996). One of the possible factors having accelerated the growth of the mutualnon-payments was the ban, introduced at the beginning of the year, to cut theelectric power supply to consumers in the event they fail to pay thesuppliers.
Table 1.8.
1996 | January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | Sept. | October | Nov. | Dec. |
Indebtednessfor payment of labor remuneration (as of the end of the month),Rbl.аbn | 20804 | 22488 | 24325 | 24748 | 28476 | 29926 | 33950 | 36022 | 40235 | 43110 | 46624 | 47151 |
GDP (Rbl.trln.) | 166 | 322 | 508 | 691 | 876 | 1066 | 1260 | 1403 | 1659 | 1819 | 2031 | 2256 |
GDP by months(Rbl. trln.) | 166 | 156 | 186 | 183 | 185 | 190 | 194 | 143 | 256 | 160 | 212 | 225 |
Debtor’sindebtedness as for the end of the month (Rbl.аtrln.) | 379,8 | 408,9 | 464,5 | 502,6 | 518,8 | 542,2 | 567 | 578,9 | 608,4 | 637,8 | 664,8 | - |
Creditor’s indebtedness as for the end of the month(Rbl.аtrln.) | 521,3 | 547,2 | 616,2 | 658,9 | 691,8 | 749,3 | 782,9 | 802 | 857,6 | 888,5 | 918,2 | - |
Inflation (to December 1991) | 1829,2 | 1880,4 | 1933,1 | 1975,6 | 2007,2 | 2031,3 | 2045,5 | 2041,4 | 2047,5 | 2072,1 Pages: | 1 | ... | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ... | 32 | Книги по разным темам
|