Книги по разным темам Pages:     | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |   ...   | 16 | INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES FEBRUARY 2009 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2009 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 2009.

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 125993, Russian Federation Phone: (495) 629-67-36 Fax: (495) 203-88-16 E- Mail: lopatina@iet.ru 1 Basic Developments and Trends............................................................................................................. 3 The politico-economic results of February 2009 S. Zhavoronkov......................................................... 4 Inflation and monetary and credit Policy N.Luksha............................................................................... 7 Financial Markets N. Burkova, E. Khudko........................................................................................... 13 Real Economy Sector: Trends and Factors O. Izryadnova.................................................................. 21 Russian Industry in February 2009 S. Tsukhlo..................................................................................... 25 Foreign Trade N. Volovik..................................................................................................................... 27 Budgetary and Tax Policy О. Kirillov................................................................................................... 31 Investment of pension savings in the system of mandatory pension insurance in Q III 2008 L. Mokhailov, L. Sycheva............................................................................................... 33 Mortgage Market Trends G. Zadonsky................................................................................................. 38 Factors Contributing to Economic Growth of Added Value in Industrial Sector in 2008 E. Astafieva.............................................................................................. 41 Fulfillment of National Project УHealthФ in 2008 S. Shishkin.............................................................. Meetings of the Government of the Russian Federation in February 2009 M. Goldin....................... Review of Economic Legislation I. Tolmacheva................................................................................. Review of Regulatory Documents Concerning Taxation in January-February 2009 L. Anisimova.... Review of Budgetary Legislation M. Goldin....................................................................................... The legal aspects of access to state information resources A. Kireeva................................................ Basic Developments and Trends In the situation of aggravating financial crisis, the Russian authorities have informed that the budget deficit could reach 8 per cent of GDP, public expenditures during the crisis will not be reduced, and the Reserve Fund, which will take two-thirds of its current balance, will cover the budget deficit.

The Court of Jury has declared not guilty those accused in the murder of A. Politkovskaya, so this problematic case remains unresolved. It is announced that the court proceedings against M. Khodorkovsky will be resumed on virtually the same charges as before, what should apparently demonstrate the continuity of power in regard to the largest business. There have been four replacements of regional governors and further resignations in the second-third level of government are anticipated.

The decline in the internal and external demand was negatively affecting the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. Reduced investment in the fixed capital in January 2009 amounted to 15,5 per cent as compared with January 2008 and the downfall in industrial production by 16 per cent, while that in processing industries the decline made by 24,1 per cent. The total number of unemployment (by Ministry of Trade assessment) in January 2009 has grown by 5,2 per cent as compared with the previous month and reached 8,1 per cent of the economically active population. Despite the decline in the real disposable monetary incomes of the population in January 2009 versus the same period in 2008 to 6,7 per cent, positive dynamics is still maintained in the consumer demand (annual growth made 102.per cent).

Despite the well-known fact that in the crisis situation public statistics is limited, the surveys of the enterprises become not only more efficient, but also more reliable source of information on the situation in the real sector. A regular IET survey provides good grounds to make conclusion on the stabilization of crisis indicators in the Russian industry. The rate of demand reduction continues to slow down, what enables businesses to reduce the production output, and in a number of cases to start its growth. The pricing policy of enterprises is getting changed - many producers refuse to reduce prices, but rather upgrade them n the next few months.

In January, inflation was accelerating in Russia: the CPI has reached 2.4 per cent as of the month results. Herewith, the international reserves continued to decline, their volume amounted to USD 386.9 billion on February 1, 2009 as compared with USD 427.1 billion a month earlier. The real effective RUR exchange rate continued downgrading: in January, its decline was 7.4 per cent. In order to curb the inflation and stabilize the exchange rate in February, the Bank of Russia has tightened monetary policy and raised interest rate twice. To enhance the capacity of the largest Russian companies in the funds attraction, RF CB lombard lists was expanded. Moreover, the Bank of Russia has reduced requirements to the own capital of the banks, which have the right to enter in the agreements on compensation of losses, arising from transactions in the interbank market.

The deterioration of the world market conditions and the downfall in the domestic demand have provoked significant reduction in the key indicators of the Russian foreign trade in December 2008.

The trade balance has fallen down to the minimum level, starting from July 2003. To support domestic producers of mineral fertilizers, the government has abolished export duties on nitrogen, compound and phosphate fertilizers.

The volatile situation in financial markets was sustained. Some increase in the stock indices in early February was followed by a downfall in the second half of the month. At the same time,an increasing activity of the short-term market investors was observed in the MICEX and RTS. The volume of domestic corporate bond market in February has been reduced again, there were virtually no primary placement of bonds. However, the growth of corporate bonds index, and consequently, reduction of the securities effective yield, the increase in investor activity in the secondary securities market, as well as the significant increase in the number and aggregate amount of newly registered issues of corporate bonds demonstrate a possible expansion of domestic debt market within the year.

International rating agency Moody's has recorded a deterioration in the Russian mortgage market, having lowered the deposit ratings in national currency of the leading mortgage agencies. The refinancing of mortgages is getting reduced. The State Duma is preparing a number of legislative initiatives, aimed at protection and support of creditors in the crisis situation.

According to the recently published data, for the majority managing companies the profitability of retirement savings in the third quarter of 2008 was negative.

Among other important decisions in the economic policy, one should mention:

Review of the government draft laws on amendments to the RF Criminal Code and the RF Code of Criminal Procedures, introducing stricter liabilities in the securities market;

Adoption of amendments to the Regulations on the RF Ministry of Finance activities, providing the Ministry of Finance the authority to grant accreditation to rating agencies;

Adoption of amendments to Chapters 21 and 25 of the Tax Code, improving the financial instruments taxation;

Clarification of some provisions of the RF Budget Code in regard to the funding of the RF subjects from the Russian federal budget and grants to local budgets from the budget of the subjects of the Russian Federation;

Approval of the government guarantees for credits to individual Russian organizations;

Amendments to the legislation, aimed at a network of federal institutions formation.

The politico-economic results of February S. Zhavoronkov The Russian authorities announced that the 2009 budget deficit will amount to 8 % of GDP, that state expenditures will not be reduced despite the crisis, and that the deficit will be covered at the expense of the Reserve Fund, which will have to part for this purpose with two -thirds of its money accumulations still remaining today. A jury acquitted the persons charged with the murder of A. Politkovskaia, thus this prominent criminal case remains unsolved. It was announced that in March the judicial authorities would start yet another legal proceedings against M. Khodarkovskii with the charges being practically similar with the previous ones, which apparently should symbolize the continuity of the regimeТs policy in the sphere of its relations with big business and in its adherence to discretionary regulation of the economy. Four governors were replaced, and further sackings could be expected in the second and third echelons of power.

In February, RF Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance A. Kudrin voiced his most pessimistic forecasts in recent months at the expanded meeting of the Collegium of the Federal Treasury.

According to Kudrin, in 2009 revenue of the RF budget will drop by 42 % by comparison with the volume of funds built into the law on the budget, while expenditure will inevitably grow. Additional expenditures will be needed for the support of the regions, banks and enterprises.

According to Kudrins estimates, the budget deficit will amount to 8 % of GDP and will be covered at the expense of the Reserve Fund (which thus will have to part with 2.7 trillion rubles, or approximately two-thirds of the means accumulated in the Reserve Funds). Over the next three years the budget deficit Уwould be reduced to 3 % of GDPФ. Kudrins information was confirmed in the speech delivered by Prime Minister V. Putin at the Council of Europe Conference of Ministers Responsible for Social Cohesion. Putin noted that УЕWe have not reduced budget expenditure but restructured itЕ. We have not cut social expenses in adjusting the budget. On the contrary, in absolute figures we are increasing themЕФ.

Thus, the Russian authorities have confirmed their long - expected intention to spend the stabilization reserves on sustaining the present level of state expenditures, apparently in the hope for a change in the economic situation. At the same time, if this situation fails to change (and nobody seems to expect any radical changes to happen before the end of the year), in the next year the authorities, all the same, will have to tackle this problem, which will be equally painful for the population and the groups of interests. Moreover, it will have to be done in the very middle of the political circle.

In late February, both V. Putin and D. Medvedev reprimanded some unnamed opposition. In particular, V. Putin said as follows: УЕ In time of crisis, all political forces become more inclined to make themselves known, are more prone to criticism. All this is not bad, provided that all this is done within the law and the ConstitutionЕWe wont allow events to happen like in some other countries, to which I will not point a finger now. At the same time, we wont limit lawful forms of protestФ. Medvedev in turn specified that the case in point was the УmarginalФ forces, which demanded that he and Putin should resign. As none of the parliamentary parties has ever demanded anything like this, our guess is that the President referred to non-parliamentary opposition - the honor it has been deprived of since 2007. However, the scope of actions organized by the opposition in February was very modest, in spite of the fact that these protests had not been banned. It is highly probable that various meetings, like those actively banned last year, will be now considered by the ruling elite to be a useful form of letting the steam out, provided that they do not attract significantly increased numbers of protesters.

In February, several VIPs from the entourage of V. Putin sharply criticized the financial policy of the RF Government, and especially that of the Central Bank. The head of the state corporation УRostekhnologiiФ (Russian Technologies), S. Chemezov, characterized the refinancing rate set by the Central Bank at 13 % as УinsaneФ, and called for it being lowered Уto zero, as is done in the whole world in time of crisisФ. Practically similar accusations were voiced by the head of УThe Russian RailroadsФ, V.

Iakunin. It can be said that the course towards containing ruble devaluation, contracting the supply of money, and struggling with inflation, pursued by the governments financial block, encounters natural resistance of the structures that used to be big recipients of state and quasi-state financial resources in the bygone time of economic stability. And it is likely that the efforts to pressure V. Putin into resuming the suspended policy of handing out considerable state resources will grow in intensity.

In February, the owner of the most considerable troubled assets1, O. Deripaska, called for the Law on Bankruptcy to be radically altered - because of its making too easy for creditors to return their money. УThe scale of demands must be comparable to the size of the business. Otherwise we would have a series of fictitious bankruptciesЕ the law must take into account not only the interests of creditors as it does now but also those of suppliers, customers and workers. Under the present law, it is very difficult for anyone here to pass through the procedure for financial recovery. This situation should be rectifiedЕФ Although Deripaskas proposals were favorably commented upon by D. Medvedev, the above statement may simply testify to the possibility that bankrupt oligarchs are encountering mounting difficulties. The financial aid rendered to some of them by state banks in October was insufficient for providing adequate solutions to all their problems, whilst no further assistance will be forthcoming at least for the time being. Which is not by chance, as we see it.

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