Книги по разным темам Pages:     | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |   ...   | 17 | INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES February 2008 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2008 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996.

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (495) 203-88-16 Fax: (495) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru 1 Major trends and events............................................................................................................................... 3 The political and economic results of February 2008 S. Zhavoronkov........................................................... 4 Real Sector: Trends and Factors O. Izryadnova........................................................................................... 7 Investments in the Fixed Assets O. Izryadnova......................................................................................... 11 Business Survey S. Tsukhlo....................................................................................................................... 13 Foreign Trade N. Volovik.......................................................................................................................... 16 Inflation, Monetary and Credit Policy P. Trunin......................................................................................... 20 Budgetary and Tax Policy О. Kirillov....................................................................................................... 23 Financial Markets N. Burkova................................................................................................................... 27 Investment of pension savings in the system of mandatory pension insurance in the first three quarters 2007 L. Mikhailov, L. Sychiova........................................................................... 34 Factors of value added growth in the industrial sector in 2007 E. Astafieva............................................... 39 Institutional and Overall Economic Growth Constraints (results of industrial survey) V. Dshkeyev, L.

Freinkman................................................................................................................................................. Prospects for the introduction, in the Russian Federation, of the institution of taxpayer consolidation A. Kireeva.......................................................................................................... Military expenditures in the Russian federal budget for 2008 V. Zatsepin.................................................. Results of National Project УHealthФ Fulfillment in 2007 S. Shishkin......................................................... Total.......................................................................................................................................................... Accession of the Ukraine to the WTO: lessons for Russia A. Pakhomov.................................................... Meetings of the Government of the Russian Federation in February 2008 M. Goldin................................. Review of Economic Legislation over February 2008 I. Tolmacheva......................................................... Review of Budgetary Legislation over February 2008 M. Goldin............................................................. Major trends and events The major news of February has been the conclusion of the RF presidential election campaign. The results of the election have turned out to be easily predictable. When analyzing D. MedvedevТs speech in Krasnoyarsk, one should note its general lack of concrete statements, especially of its law part seen by many as liberal. V. Putin made a report УOn the Strategy of RussiaТs Development Until 2020Ф. The date specified - the year 2020 - was noteworthy for it representing the end of the third (after D. MedvedevТs election) presidential cadence, and giving rise to recollections of PutinТs former reflections of a possibility of his another Уterm in office, but not a successive oneФ. Putin confirmed that he would assume the office of the GovernmentТs Chairman, and that he relied on his cooperation with the future President in implementing their common goals.

In January 2008, Rosstat (Russian Statistics Service) issued its first estimate of GDP for the year 2007, and finalized the indices for 2004 - 06. In 2007, the volume of GDP rose, in real terms, by 8.1 % against 7.% in the previous year.

In January 2008, the index of industrial production amounted to 104.8 %. A certain decrease in the rate of growth by comparison with the corresponding period of last year can be explained by the exceptionally high base of the year 2007. The beginning of this year is characterized by the continuation of the existing trends towards dynamic growth of investments in fixed assets (119.0 %) and of retail turnover (114.1 %).

In December 2007, the major indices of RussiaТs external trade continued to be on the rise, owing to the favorable situation on the world market and the growing internal demand. At the same time, by the end of the year, a number of serious problems had revealed themselves with regard to the implementation, by Russia, of some large - scale contracts for export deliveries of civil and military equipment. This can result in a loss, by Russian machine-building, of a number of traditional foreign markets.

By the results of January, the rate of inflation in the RF remained high; it amounted to 2.3 % against 1.%, by comparison with the same period of the previous year. The Bank of Russia increased the refinancing interest rate from the 1st of February - for the first time since summer 1998 - thus sending a signal that its priority was to combat inflation. Simultaneously with this, the rates of interest on commercial banksТ deposits in the RF Central Bank were also increased, and it was announced that from 1 March 2008 onward the rates of allocations into the compulsory reserve fund would be raised as well.

In February, the dynamics of the Russian financial market was determined by the situation on world financial markets, thus reflecting a neutral negative background. Investor activity on the Russian share market grew by more than 30 %. The dynamics of the Russian stock indicesТ quotations was positive. However, by the end of February, negative expectations on world markets had become stronger, which had an adverse effect on the Russian stock market as well.

In January 2008, the federal budget revenue and expenditure both increased. By the results of January, the financing of state expenditures amounted to 41.9 % of the approved annual index, thus creating the preconditions for resolving the chronic problem of budget funds being unevenly spent over a year. On 31 January 2008, the funds of the RF Stabilization Funds were placed on separate accounts - of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, respectively.

In accordance with the changes introduced in February into the current three - year federal budget, the military expenditures of the Russian Federation in the year 2008 will amount to 4.08 % of GDP, thus remaining practically unchanged in real terms (the annual growth of 1.3 %). The revised budget, reflecting the rather confused policy of the authorities, mainly conserves some of the disproportions in financing the countryТs defense. A significant growth in financing is observed only in one sphere - that of construction of housing for servicemen.

In 2007, state capital investments in implementing the federal target investment program (FTIP) increased by 58.9 % in fixed prices by comparison with the year 2006. In 2007, the share of expenditures on financing the FTIP amounted to 1.77 %, which exceeded the level of the previous year by 0.4 p. p.

The first data on industrial dynamics in February cannot inspire much optimism. A slight rise in the growth rate of demand has merely returned the values of this index to the level observed in Q IV 2007. At the same time, production growth continues to decline. At present, this downward slide is accelerated by yet another factor - the УinvasionФ of imports, taking place in conditions of the ongoing strengthening of the ruble and an upsurge of inflationary expectations. However, enterprises are full of optimism and anticipate an intensive rise in both demand and output in the forthcoming months.

Modernization of equipment is gradually becoming an accepted method for increasing the competitiveness of Russian industrial enterprises. It is conceivable that such a growth of attention to investments in equipment would make it possible not only to increase the competitiveness of products, but also to overcome the current major problems restricting industrial growth - the lack of capacities and manpower resources.

On 5 February 2008, the package of documents on UkraineТs accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) was approved. UkraineТs membership in the WTO can have rather ambiguous consequences for the future of her bilateral trade and economic relations with Russia, and for the process of RussiaТs accession to the WTO as well.

In February, among the questions discussed at the meetings of the RF Government, there were the following issues: the measures designed to improve the efficiency of the RF Investment FundТs financial resources;

a draft of the main directions for the customs and tariff policy of the Russian Federation for the year and for the 2010 - 2011 planning period; and the draft law УOn the Introduction of Alterations in Some Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation in Connection with the Adoption of the Federal Law УOn Additional Measures of State Support for Families with ChildrenФ.

The political and economic results of February S. Zhavoronkov The main news in February is the completion of the presidential election campaign in the RF. The forecasted outcome of the election is rather simple: Ziuganov and Zhirinovsky are to be allotted approximately 10 - 15% of the vote, the rest goes to the УsuccessorФ. V. Putin delivered the report УOn the Strategy of RussiaТs Development Until 2020Ф. The specific year - 2020 is noteworthy because it represents the end on the third, after the УsuccessorФТs election, presidential term of office, and recalled references to PutinТs former discourse as to Уa third term in office, but not a successive oneФ. Putin, indeed, has confirmed that he is going to fill the post of Chairman of the RF Government, and aspires to achieve, while in this post, his goals - same as those of the future president. As for D. MedvedevТs program speech in Krasnoyarsk, it lacks exactness, especially in the part relating to legal matters, which has been estimated by many as liberal.

FebruaryТs main news, as before, was the final stage of RF presidential election campaign. The campaign for the leading candidate (the УsuccessorФ), D. Medvedev, turned out to be much more modest than that of United Russia prior to the elections to the State Duma. In effect, the former was reduced to TV coverage of his activity, some street posters (most often depicting him together with V. Putin), and the traditional administrative procedures aimed at increasing voter turnout at the polls. The campaigning of the other two candidates - G. Ziuganov and V. Zhirinovsky - was also noticeably more modest than their Duma elections campaigns (although the latter, nevertheless, had bought a rather impressive amount of time on TV channels).

The forecasted outcome of the election was rather simple: Ziuganov and Zhirinovsky were allotted approximately 10 % - 15 % of the vote, the rest was to go to the УsuccessorФ, who was thus evidently far ahead of United Russia in its December vote (64%). Questions arise only in connection with voter turnout in face of such an obvious absence of intriguing. However, this is not a legal, but purely psychological issue.

Observers were far more interested in what the two Presidents - both the one leaving and the one coming to the post - were saying, rather than the development of the election campaign. In these sayings they were attempting to discern the contours of this countryТs future policy and the distribution of powers within the ruling group. And there was, indeed, some food for thought. The most consistent and program-oriented was D. MedvedevТs speech at the Krasnoyarsk economic forum, as well as V. PutinТs press conference and his speech at an enlarged plenary meeting of the State Council.

First of all, in February there was once again Уa lot of PutinФ on TV channels and in the official mass media in general (whereas in late December mainly his УsuccessorФ was being publicized). The title itself of PutinТs report to the State Council - УOn the Strategy of RussiaТs Development Until 2020Ф - was demonstrative of the leaving PresidentТs scope of ambition,since he was aspiring to formulate the goals for this countryТs administration during a period far exceeding his current term of office. The date specified - the year 2020 - was noteworthy, among other things, also for it representing the end of the third (after the forthcoming УsuccessorФТs election) presidential term in office, and giving rise to recollections of PutinТs former reflections of a possibility of his Уthird term in office, but not a successive oneФ.

Among the most frequently asked questions at PutinТs press conference, there were the following ones:

was his decision to become Prime Minister final, and how Putin and Medvedev are going to interact while occupying their new posts. Putin indeed confirmed that he would fill the post of the GovernmentТs Chairman, and was relying on his cooperation with the future President in implementing their common goals.

Then Putin criticized the 2004 administrative reform, discussed the necessity for strengthening the institution of vice prime ministers, and pointed out that it would be feasible to create at least one more such post - that of vice prime minister for agriculture. Besides, Putin praised current parliamentТs composition and elections legislation (Уan entirely well-proportioned systemФ, the 7% barrier, etc.). He expressed his negative attitude to the proposal that he should become head of United Russia (explaining that he intended to Уrely on all the citizens of the Russian FederationФ, which caused confusion among the audience who remembered PutinТs previous experience of topping the list of candidates of the party in power). As for his future relationship with Medvedev, Putin only offered a controversial remark that he was not going to hung the formerТs portrait in his office, because the character of their relationship did not demand this.

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