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565.52%

52.5%

7 tranche

446.16%

148.22%

138.70%

186.5%

8 tranche

174.77%

392.05%

89.73%

69.9%

9 tranche

–

–

89.01%

69.6%

turnover of GKO-OFZ market a month (billion rubles)

66731

64285

77842

78000

the overall value of outstanding GKO–OFZ (trillion rubles)

188.2

197.533

214.9

225

nominal surplus of the overall value of outstanding GKO–OFZ compared to the previous month

9.7%

5%

8.8%

4.7%

IBC – INSTAR rate (annual %) on loans by the end of the month:

overnight

35.17%

53.39%

43.83%

32%

1 week

36.85%

52.36%

41.33%

30%

2 weeks

40.32%

48.96%

39.67%

45%

1 month

70.00%

48.05%

39.40%

40%

turnover of IBC market a month (billion rubles)

29609

32360

37254

40000

effective yield on Vnesheconombank’s bonds. USD:

3 tranche

14.1%

13.4%

11.8%

10.9%

4 tranche

15.7%

14.6%

13.2%

12.0%

5 tranche

16.0%

15.3%

13.5%

12.3%

6 tranche

15.5%

14.9%

13.4%

12.3%

7 tranche

15.5%

15.0%

13.5%

12.5%

official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the end of the month

5348

5396

5455

5508

official exchange rate of ruble per DM by the end of the month

3535

3538

3609

3635

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US dollar growth

42.6%

11.3%

12.9%

12.3%

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per DM growth

34.5%

-13.2%

2.0%

9.0%

gross turnover at the currency exchange market a month (billion rubles)

1150

1175

822

810

turnover at the stock market in the RTS for the month (millions of USD):

–

292.24

483.35

390

average annualized return at the stock market in the RTS:

–

-13.53%

15.8%

14%

RTS market portfolio risk:

–

12.26%

59.7%

300%

*/ estimate

Arkhipov S.A.. Drobyshevsky S.M.

Investment Policy

This year, due to the intensified budgetary crisis and because of the complicated political situation the risks of long- term investments grew. In such a situation, the potential investors keep their orientation to the most profitable transactions on the national financial market.

The compression of investment demand on the domestic market continues to have a negative effect on a level of business activity in all the economy’s sectors. The arrears crisis, banks’ high interest rates incomparable with profitable rates of production restrict enterprises investment potential. The dynamics of the investment demand over January- October 1996 was restricted by a trend of an advancing price rise for investment resources comparing to a growth of consumer prices. The change in the correlation between prices and a structure of solvent demand has had its impact on a decrease of prices on the real estate market. The latter became one of the factors determining the juncture in the field of house building.

A decrease in volumes of budgetary financing, along with a reduction of reserves, influenced a decline of business activity in house building. It is non- government investments which become a main source of financing in this sphere. The financing of the УHomeФ program was fulfilled at 12% of this year’s limit ( RUR 1.2 trln.) over the 10 month this year. At the expense of the population’s capital, along with an attraction of bank credits, 6.5 mln. square meters of houses were put into operation over 9 months this year. It makes up 138% to the respective period in 1995. At the same time, state- owned enterprises put into operation 3 mln. square meters, or 80% to the same period of the previous year.

The dynamics of house building found themselves under a significant impact of seasonal factor. It is the IIIrd and the IVth quarters on which the most intensive rates of putting living area into operation usually fall. According to the opinion of experts of the RF Ministry of Economy, the reduction in volumes of house building made up. 10% over the period of January- October 1996. They assume that at most the overall volume of a placing houses into operation in 1996 might maintain at the level of 1995.

Table 5 The dynamics of investments in capital assets, in % to the respective period of the previous year.

	I quarter	I half year	January- July	January- August	January- September	January- October
Gross Domestic Product	97,0	95,0	95,0	94,0	94,0	94,0
Industry	96,0	96,0	95,0	95,0	95,0	95,0
Investments	90,0	86,0	85,0	83,0	83,0	82,0
including by objects:	-	-	-	-
of productive character	86,0	83,0	83,0	82,0	80,0	81,0
of non- productive character	95,0	86,0	95,0	85,0	90,0	84,0
Placing living facilities into operation	103,0	99,6	95,0	98,0	91,0	90,0
Price indices:*)
for finished products	108,9	114,5	101,2	102,1	101,8	102,8
for resources purchased	107,5	113,2	101,1	102,4	102,6	-
for investments	115,3	125,9	102,2	101,7	101,8	-
for construction and assembling works	116,4	128,7	102,9	101,9	101,9	-

*) The Ist quarter- March 1996 to December 1995, Ist half year - June 1996 to December 1995, other months- in % to the previous one

Source: Goskomstat of RF

This year the reduction in investments in industry made up 10% as compared with 1995. Given the reduction in a share of investments to the processing sector, the investment activity in electroenergetics, gas industry, and in the branches of the productive infrastructure is maintained this year. The investment activity is mostly oriented to a maintenance of productive apparatus functioning, at the expense of reconstruction and technical rearmament (59% of investment expenditure).

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