Книги по разным темам
Pages: | 1 | ... | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | ... | 37 | In November through January, a number ofindustries showed growth not only from the previous month but from the sameperiods of 1997-1998. In January 1999 as compared to January 1998, engineeringoutput rose by 2.3 per cent, timber and woodworking by 5.8 per cent, industrialbuilding materials 2 per cent, glass, china and earthenware 2.6 per cent, andmicrobiology output by 0.4 per cent. Of course,. this is not much, but let usnot forget that a year ago the Russian economy had already begun to show signsof growth, so that the reference point in this comparison is not the deepestlow of the post-communist crisis.
One has to wonder about the reasons forthese positive developments. In late 1998, the government managed, for the mostpart, to ensure macroeconomic stability (first of all, to prevent inflationfrom skyrocketing) and to more or less normalize the system of payments andsettlements.
Generally speaking, there are two principalgroups of factors that determined the production growth trend.
On the one hand, the ruble devaluation,which sharply undermined the competitive capacity of many imported products,generated a rapid rise in the efficiency of a number of domestic producers.This factor will continue to operate provided the real ruble rate ismaintained, i.e., provided the inflation rate coincides with the rate ofdecline of the exchange rate. High inflation would by itself cancel the growthpotential. Inflation would be curbed (using a fixed or quasi-fixed rate) whenthe real ruble value rises and the "devaluation" source of the competitivecapacity of domestic production has been exhausted.
Table 1.14
Dynamics of industrial output for 1998,
per cent of previous month
01.98 | 02.98 | 03.98 | 04.98 | 05.98 | 06.98 | 07.98 | 08.98 | 09.98 | 10.98 | 11.98 | 12.98 | |
Total industry | 93,2 | 101,2 | 100,4 | 95,8 | 93,2 | 100,9 | 94,5 | 99,3 | 96,9 | 110,1 | 100 | 110,1 |
Electrical powerengineering | 96,8 | 91,4 | 92,7 | 84,4 | 76 | 86 | 98 | 98,2 | 110,5 | 131,3 | 126,4 | 110,3 |
Fuel | 99,4 | 93 | 106,1 | 98,9 | 97 | 103 | 98,9 | 96,8 | 107,4 | 97 | 104,9 | |
Ferrous metals | 104,5 | 95,1 | 107,3 | 98,3 | 102 | 89,5 | 100,1 | 97,8 | 96,8 | 104,2 | 94,6 | 117,1 |
Nonferrousmetals | 116,9 | 97,2 | 106,5 | 92,1 | 106,5 | 113,2 | 111,5 | 99,2 | 92,8 | 95,1 | 92,1 | 103,2 |
Chemical and petrochemicalindustry | 99,5 | 98,5 | 113,1 | 102,5 | 93 | 88,2 | 98,1 | 96,2 | 100 | 114,1 | 99,4 | 104,5 |
Machine building and metalworking | 103,5 | 108,4 | 112,1 | 98,5 | 78,5 | 115,4 | 87,2 | 95,7 | 93,4 | 118,2 | 93,3 | 111,4 |
Timber, wood working andpulp and paper industries | 96,1 | 111,3 | 113,1 | 88,1 | 74,8 | 120,6 | 100,3 | 95 | 92,9 | 100,5 | 92,6 | 140,1 |
Building materialsindustry | 87,9 | 100,1 | 115,9 | 112,6 | 99,5 | 110,2 | 98,8 | 98,7 | 98,1 | 100,2 | 86,7 | 101,3 |
Light industry | 109,5 | 109,5 | 102,3 | 98,3 | 71,8 | 102 | 81,1 | 105 | 107,9 | 7 | 95,7 | 107,1 |
Foodprocessing | 93,2 | 113 | 117,2 | 98,2 | 98,8 | 97,7 | 98,6 | 95,2 | 98,1 | 112,1 | 91,6 | 102 |
Source: RF Goskomstat
On the other hand, the growth of the pastfew months is associated with the economy's entry into a high inflation cycle.The experience of many countries makes it quite clear that the expansion ofmonetary financing of the economy initially (during several months) stimulateseconomic growth thanks to the emergence of a "monetary illusion", that is,money injected into the economy creates an illusion of expanding demand.Households have the money to buy goods. Companies perceive the market's signalsas an increase of demand and begin to expand production. The demand forintermediary goods (ones used for production purpose) grows. The real level ofnon-payments in the economy goes down. This factor is strictly short-term andis soon followed by a new recession.
Table 1.15
Dynamics of the strike movement in1998
Number of enterprises andorganizations where strikes occurred | in thousands of persons | |
January | 246 | 19,6 |
February | 78 | 8,1 |
March | 70 | 9,7 |
April | 946 | 52,3 |
May | 362 | 25,4 |
June | 92 | 13,9 |
July | 31 | 5,4 |
August | 47 | 2,1 |
September | 2394 | 78,5 |
October | 4229 | 196,1 |
November | 2135 | 65,5 |
December | 5305 |
Source: RF Goskomstat
We see that by early 1999, the Russianeconomy had two mechanisms for stimulating growth, which, although compatiblein the short term, are bound to diverge in mid-term (over six months). Thestability of the December-January favorable trends would depend, above all, onthe government's economic policy. Adequate macroeconomic and institutionaldecisions on the part of the government are essential for maintaining thefavorable trends that came into being in late 1998-early 1999.
In the short term, the operation of thesefactors was predominantly favorable. As demand expanded, the share ofenterprises that increased the volume of output has increased several times.Last autumn witnessed production growth in engineering, the chemical andpetrochemical industry, ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy, oil production andoil refining (from September 1997 through August 1998, that is, in the periodof macroeconomic stabilization, this indicator was going down).
Pages: | 1 | ... | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | ... | 37 | Книги по разным темам