Европейская денежная система
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factor, which we have called the large size factor or the habitat of the euro, is important because without a certain critical mass, a currency cannot have international relevance, however high its degree of stability.
The figures relating to the population and the GDP of the euro area illustrate this. With 292 million inhabitants, its population exceeds that of the United States (270 million) and that of Japan (127 million). The GDP of the euro area is, on the other hand, equal to 76% of the GDP of the United States (EUR 5,774 billion compared with EUR 7,592 billion), though it is higher than that of Japan (EUR 3,327 billion). The source of this information, which refers to 1998, is Eurostat.
However, even more important than the current figures is the potential for the future development of the euro area, in terms of population and GDP, if and when the so-called "pre-ins" (Denmark, Greece, Sweden and the United Kingdom) join the Eurosystem.
The entry of these countries would result in a monetary area of 376 million inhabitants, 39% larger than the United States and almost triple the size of Japan, with a GDP of EUR 7,495 billion, only slightly less than that of the United States and 125% higher than that of Japan.
All these facts and figures which demonstrate the demographic and economic importance of the European Union would be further strengthened by enlargement to eastern Europe. Our continent has a historical, cultural and geographical identity - from the Iberian peninsula to the Urals, with certain additional external territories - which, in the future, may also come to form an economic unit. However that is, for the moment, a distant prospect.
The size or habitat of an economy does not only depend on demographic or economic factors; it also has to do with the financial base or dimension of the area. In considering the financial dimension of the euro area, the first relevant feature to observe is the low level of capitalisation of the stock markets in comparison with the United States and Japan.
Although this feature could give the impression that the euro area has a relatively small financial dimension relative to its economic dimension, this is not the case. The lower degree of development of the capital markets is offset by a higher degree of banking assets. This means that the financial base of real economic activity in Europe is founded on bank intermediation, which is also a feature of the Japanese economy. For example, private domestic credit in the euro area amounts to 92.4% of GDP, while in the United States it is only 68.9%. Conversely, fixed domestic income represents 34.2% of GDP in the euro area compared with 66.1% of GDP in the United States (statistics from the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements as at the end of 1997, taken from the Monthly Bulletin of the European Central Bank). We, therefore, have two distinct models of private financing which clearly have to be taken into account when assessing Europes financial dimension compared with the United States or Japan.
The euro, the Eurosystems monetary policy and, in general, the activity of the ECB and the Eurosystem play a key role in the integration of European financial markets and all markets in general. The euro is acting as a catalyst for European economic integration. And more integration will lead to a greater economic and financial dimension.
Monetary and financial integration stemming from the euro and the activity of the Eurosystem will affect the operation of the single European market in a positive way. The European market, with a single currency, will tend to be more transparent, more competitive, more efficient and will function more smoothly. This is the reason why joining the European Union, as a general rule, will lead to joining the euro area, once certain economic conditions (the so-called convergence criteria) have been fulfilled.
Monetary union is always a political operation, irrespective of its technical and economic implications. Currency is one of the most genuine expressions of sovereignty, because the power to issue money is one of the greatest powers in existence. The Treaty on European Union led, first, to the depoliticisation of monetary power in Europe, by means of granting independence to the central banks and prohibiting the monetising of public deficits, and afterwards to denationalisation or supranationalisation (via the creation of the Eurosystem). The Eurosystem was not only created for the purpose of improving the operation of the Single Market, but also in order to make progress on the building of the European political structure.
The euro should not only be seen as a catalyst for European economic integration, it should also be seen as a main beam necessary to construct the European political structure. The relationship between political power and monetary power is an interesting subject which is open to investigation and discussion, but that would certainly go beyond the scope of this speech. I merely wish to point out that, in the case of Europe, it is clear that following the achievement of a single currency, the door remains open to political union, which would represent a crucial step in the process of integration. In conclusion, it would seem clear that the implications of the euro go "beyond supply and demand" (to use the title of the work of Wilhelm Rцpke). We are now fully immersed in "meta-economy", which means it is time to end my speech.
Keynote address to be delivered by
Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg
President of the European Central Bank
on
The European System of Central Banks
Current position and future prospects
At a Conference organised by the Royal Institute of International
Affairs on
European economic and Monetary Union
Markets and Politics under the Euro
London 27 november 1998
1. Introduction
Ladies and Gentlemen, I should like to express my appreciation at being invited to deliver a speech at this conference organised by the Royal Institute of International Affairs. It is a great pleasure for me to be here, in London, today.
The topic I am going to address relates to the current position and the future prospects of the European System of Central Banks. I feel that this topic provides me with an opportunity to deal with the objective of the ESCB and its contribution to the other policies in the Community. I will also briefly touch upon the decision-making in the ESCB, recall the main features of our monetary policy strategy and talk about our regard for openness and transparency. The final part of my talk will cover the views of the ESCB on recent economic developments and the future outlook for price stability in the euro area.
2. Independence, transparency and accountability
In the Maastricht Treaty the ESCB has been given an independent status. The reason is that politicians all over the world have come round to the view that monetary policy decisions taken with too close a political involvement tend to take too short a time horizon into consideration. The consequence is that in the longer term such decisions do not support sustainable gains in employment and income, but only lead to higher inflation. This view is confirmed by a host of economic research.
Independence, however, requires a clear mandate. The ESCB has such a mandate. Its primary objective is to maintain price stability. Without prejudice to the objective of price stability the ESCB shall support the general economic policies in the Community. Price stability is not an end in itself: it creates the conditions in which other, higher-order, objectives can be reached. In particular, I share the deep concerns about the unacceptably high level of unemployment in Europe. The ESCB will do what it can to contribute to the solution of this problem. By maintaining price stability inflation expectations and interest rates can be kept at a low level. This creates a stability-oriented environment which fosters sustainable growth, a high level of employment, a fair society and better living standards. Moreover, in specific circumstances, if production, inflation and employment all move in the same direction, monetary policy can play some role in stabilising output and employment growth without endangering price stability. However, the contribution from monetary policy can generally be only limited. Given the structural nature of the unemployment problems the solution is to be found, above all, in structural reforms aimed at well-functioning labour and product markets.
An independent central bank does not only need a clear mandate. It has also to be an open and transparent institution, for at least three reasons. First, transparency enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy by creating the correct expectations on the part of economic agents. A predictable monetary policy contributes to achieving stable prices without significant adjustment costs and with the lowest interest rate possible. The second reason is that in a democratic society the central bank has to account for its policies. Finally, transparency towards the outside world can also structure and disci