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have remained unchanged across the industrial sec- This appears logical, considering contraction in all kinds of demand. However the existence of exces- Forecasts across all kinds of demand improved sive stock along with the growth in effective de- by several points in December. After the threemand over the previous months shows that in 2001 month decline the enterprises showed a greater opthe behavior of this crucial indicators was likely to timism in terms of envisaged changes in sales, and undergo cardinal changes. During several prior in December the balance of this index grew by years the national industrial sector showed rather an points. It was the sectors for metallurgy, chemicals, evident correlation: rise in decline rates of effective petrochemicals, construction, and the light industry demand would lead to growth in excessive stock of that retained negative balances (i.e. forecasted definished products, while with slowdown of the de- cline in their cash sales), while it was the sector for cline and a consequent rise in sales enterprises machine building that reported the most optimistic changed their estimates for opposite ones (see Fig.). forecasts of changes in effective demand. The foreThe default in August 1998 changed the situation casts of changes in barter УimprovedФ by 2 points drastically in the industrial sector on the whole and over the past two months, and in early 2002 the enspecifically in terms of the stock of finished prod- terprises expected just slightly less intense decline ucts. The basis for such a phenomenon appeared the in such deals, while forecasts of deals involving growth in effective demand for the national produc- promissory notes and off-sets remained unchanged.

ersТ output. As a result, industrial enterprises had The actual stability of forecasts of changes in bargotten rid of excessive stock of finished products ter, promissory notes and off-sets under the condiand by mid - 1999 had the highest rate of insuffi- tions of transition from growth in effective demand ciency with storage reserves (-24%). Despite fluc- to its decline testifies to the fact that the national tuations of the effective demand growth rates such industrial sector is most unlikely to wish the comea situation has been in place until mid-2000, when back of non-cash deals.

enterprises began to gradually increase their stock The contraction of actual output in December and reached a sufficient level of that in 2001. This and a gradual lowering of optimism of forecasts of level exceeded the excessive stock noted in 1998 output showed that enterprises were ready to react when sales were falling intensively. This allows as- to decline in sales with production reduction. In the sumption that in 2001, similar to producers of the 1st quarter 2002 the decline in output may become countries with of steady market economies, the na- possible in the sectors for coal, metallurgy, and tional industrial enterprises began to use their stock light and food industries, while the most intense of finished products as a buffer to smooth down growth in forecasted in machine building.

sharp fluctuations of demand and/or offer. For ex- The major part of industrial enterprises (56%) ample, the stock of finished products is always ex- hopes to retain their shares in the sales markets in cessive in the European countries. The amount of early 2002. Possible changes of this particular inthe excess fluctuates depending on phases of eco- dex have a positive balance with forecasts of innomic cycle, but the stock is always there, because creasing the respective market shares dominating consumers do not want to wait. among them.

S. Tsoukhlo The sector for oil and gas In 2001 the national oil and gas sector retained by 21.2%, and placement of new wells into operamain positive trends of its development, as the oil tion - by 23.0%. The proportional weight of idle price downfall occurred in the 4th quarter has not wells in the operational fund dropped: as of Nohad a real impact on the oil sector as yet. Between vember 1, 2001 it accounted for 21.0% (22.5% as January through October 2001 the overall volume of late 2000). The intensity of crude oil refining in of oil output accounted for 107.7% relative to its the oil-refining sector rose up to 71%, along with respective index of the prior year, while the volume the growth in production of non-ethylated and highof primary oil processing - by 103.6%. The output octane gasoline. The share of the former in the of petroleum derivatives grew notably, too (see Ta- overall output of gasoline reached 97.9%, while the ble 1); investment in production rose, while the latter one- 46.4% (while in 2000 the respective involume of operational oil drilling grew by 9.9% dices accounted for m96.2 and 41.4%, respeccompared with the respective period of the prior tively).

year, while the volume of exploration drilling grew Table 1 Output of oil, petroleum derivatives and natural gas, as % to the respective period or the prior year.

1998 1999 2000 январь-ноябрь Oil 99,0 100,3 105,9 107,Gas condensate 105,0 104,7 103,8 106,Primary oil refining 92,5 102,9 102,7 103,Gasoline 95,7 102,2 103,6 101,Diesel fuel 95,5 104,2 104,9 101,Black oil 89,0 94,8 98,3 104,Natural gas, cub.m. bln. 103,8 99,7 98,5 98,Oil gas, cub.m.bln., 99,1 103,2 102,5 104,Source: Goskomstat of RF In contrast to the situation of 2000, the growth in peak (USD 200/t.) in late 2000 then had a clear domestic demand has not caused a price rise for oil trend to their downfall and slid to USD 160/t. by and petroleum derivatives in the domestic market October. As a result, the domestic price for gasoline (on the contrary, they fell in real equivalent), which fell lower the pre-devaluation level, while the gas is a sign of a certain overproduction of oil in the prices have grown substantially over recent months, country. The domestic oil prices in USD equivalent however, they remained lower than during the predropped from USD 56-58/t. in early 2001 to 53/t. in crisis period (Table 2, Fig. 1 and 2) October. The prices for gasoline that reached their Table 2. Domestic prices for oil, petroleum derivatives and natural gas in USD equivalent (producer average wholesale prices, as USD/t.) 1997 1998 1999 2000 December December December December October Oil 63,1 16,4 37,0 54,9 53,Gasoline 169,6 63,4 171,9 199,3 159,Diesel fuel 170,0 52,9 125,0 185,0 175,Black oil 73,8 22,0 46,1 79,7 65,Gas, as USD / Thos. cub.m 6,6 2,2 2,2 3,1 5,Source: calculated according to the data of Goskomstat Between January through September 2001 Rus- While judging results of the 4th quarter, however, sian oil exports grew by 10.7% vs. the prior year, one should expect deterioration of the financial inwhile export of petroleum derivatives- by 5.9%. dicators of the sectorТs performance due to the The share of export in the prodyction of diesel fuel downfall of world oil prices. Given that over the over the first 9 months of 2001 made up 51%, black first 3 quarters 2001 the average price for OPEC oil oil- 19.9%, and gasoline- 13.3%. The growth in basket accounted for USD 24-26/barrel, i.e. was physical volume of export allowed compensation close to the middle of the OPEC price corridor (22for some decline in the world oil prices compared 28 USD/ barrel), in the 4th quarter it went down unto last year. Oil exports in value equivalent over the der USD 20/barrel, while in October it sank to 19.6, first nine months accounted for 103.7% compared and in November- to 17.6 USD/barrel.

with the respective period of the prior year. At the The main factors underpinning the downfall in same time the volume of gas exports dropped nota- world oil prices in 2001 appeared a sharp slowbly (by 7% vs. the prior year) which was deter- down of the world demand for oil and its direct fall mined chiefly by decline in its supplies to the CIS in some large industrially developed economies countries. along with a continuos rise in oil output and accuThe financial state of the oil industry between mulation of sufficient industrial stock of that. The January to September 2001 was characterized by weakening of the world oil demand resulted from a maintenance of a high level of oil companiesТ ex- notable slowdown of the world economyТs growth port revenues and profits and a further contraction rate. According to estimates of IMF analysts, the in the amount of credit liability. By late September growth rate of the world GDP fell from 4.7% in the outstanding debts of oil companies to budgets 2000 down to 2.4% in 2001, while the biggest conof all levels in USD equivalent dropped to the sumers of oil experience yet a more intense fall of minimal value noted over the past 4 years - USD their economic growth rates: in the US, GDP in0.16 bln. (Table 3). crement rate slid from 4.1% in 2000 to 1.0% in 2001, in Germany- from 3.0% to 0.5%, in Canada- from 4.4% to 1.4%. Japan whose GDP increment rate fell from 3.3% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2001. The rate accounted for 2.2% in 2000 is undergoing eco- loosening demand was also battered by terrorist acnomic slump, and, according to IMF experts, con- tions of 11 September that have resulted, specifitraction in the countries GDP in 2001 accounted for cally, in the fall of demand for jet fuel, and a rela0.4%, while OECD suggests it made up 0.7%. Ac- tively warm (compared to average annual temperacording to the USD Department of Energy, overall tures) autumn in the country.

across the OECD countries the economic growth Table 3 Indicator of financial performance of the Russian oil industry between 1997 to 2001, as USD bln.

1997 1998. 1999 2000 (9 months) Gains from exports of oil and petro- 21,09 13,96 18,82 34,89 26,leum derivatives Profits (balance sheet financial out- 3,52 0,60 6,32 10,42 6,put) Outstanding accounts receivable (as 6,79 2,41 1,61 1,35 1,of end period) Including to the budget 2,53 0,66 0,43 0,27 0,As a result, according to International Energy The excessive offer of oil in the wold market has Agency, the increment in the world demand for oil led to a substantial growth in oil stock. In Septemfell from 0.9% in 2000 to 0.1% in 2001, while the ber 2001 the OPEC oil stock practically reached the nations of both North and South Americas, OECD maximum value noted over the past 5 years, and and Asia - Pacific regions reported its direct con- that was also the case for all the OECD countries.

traction. As concerns industrially developed na- This became an additional factor inhibiting the rise tions, it was Japan whose demand for oil fell most in oil prices.

notably - by 1.6% compared with the prior year, The sharp decline in world oil prices encouraged while contraction in demand was also reported by the OPEC nations to rule out their decision of Nothe US, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, and vember 14, 2001, on an additional contraction of India. According to the US Department for Energy, their output by another 1.5 mln. barrel/day effective the demand for oil grew by 0.9% in 2000 and slid as of January 1. 2002. However, concerned with the to0.1% in 2001. fall in their share in the world market, OPEC put The fall in the world demand for oil took place implementation of their decision in dependence on against the backdrop of the continuous rise in the non-OPEC oil producersТ readiness to carry out an world oil output. At the same time, to maintain the overall oil production reduction at 500 thos. bardesirable price level for oil, OPEC countries have rel/day. At this juncture, Russia declared its intent managed to reduce oil output (though not to the ex- to reduce its oil export supplies by 150 thos. bartent agreed upon by them). According to the US rel/day starting from early 2002, while both NorDepartment of Energy, the OPEC oil output fell way and Mexico announced their decision on refrom 30.9 mln. barrel/day in 2000 to 30.2 mln. bar- duction in their oil exports at not less than 100,rel/day in 2001, along with a considerable rise in oil barrel/day each (notably, Norway may even reduce output by other oil producers outside OPEC. Ac- its oil exports by up to 200,ooo barrel/day). They cording to the US Department of Energy, the daily were joined by Oman and Angola that also are gooil output in the former USSR grew from 8.1 mln. ing to reduce their exports, though to a less extent barrel in 2000 up to 8.8 mln. barrel in 2001, while (Oman- by 50,000 barrel/day).

net oil exports from this zone rose from 4.5 to 5.2 According to the basic of the last (as of Decemmln. barrel/day. So, the reduction in oil output by ber 2001) forecast of the US Department of Energy, OPEC was neutralized by oil supplies from the in 2002 the world oil price calculated as the average former USSR, primarily from Russia. As a result, price for US oil import should make up USD the proportional weight of OPEC countries in the 18.69/barrel, or at 15% down the average oil price world oil output slid from 40.2% in 2000 to 39.3% in 2001. According to IMF, the respective price in 2001. should account for USD 18.5/barrel on average.

Table 4. World oil prices between 1998 to 1998 1999 2000 2001 (estimated) (forecasted) US oil import price, as USD/barrel 12,08 17,22 27,72 21,98 18,Source: the US Department of Energy So, the maintenance of relatively low world oil while Japan would face intensification of economic prices in 2002 is determined chiefly by a consider- slump with its GDP fall roughly accounting for 1%.

able slowdown in the world economic growth. Ac- At the same time one should expect that in cording to forecasts of OECD and IMF, in 2002 the Urals would not be lower USD 18-18.5/barrel, i.e.

US GDP increment would lower to 0.7-0.8%, in it should match the RF budget projections.

Yu. Bobylev Canada- to 0.8%, while in EurozoneЧto 1.5%, The 2002 Russian Agricultural Budget The 2002 state budget passed its fourth reading for establishing a normal commercial network of in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. There agricultural machinery leasing in the country.

is a plenty of grounds to call it a reformatory one. At the same time in the course of the third readWhat's new in the budget as regards the agrifood ing of the 2002 Budget Law the State Duma resector stored therein some programs that were not inFirst of all, it should be noted that nominal cluded in the government bill due to their actual budget expenditures on the agrifood sector grow failure (e.g. subsidies to waste utilization plants and since 1999 (Picture 1). The draft Budget Law raises support of reindeer breeding in the northern territothe nominal allocations to agriculture and fishery ries).

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