565.52%
52.5%
7 tranche
446.16%
148.22%
138.70%
186.5%
8 tranche
174.77%
392.05%
89.73%
69.9%
9 tranche
–
–
89.01%
69.6%
turnover of GKO-OFZ market a month (billion rubles)
66731
64285
77842
78000
the overall value of outstanding GKO–OFZ (trillion rubles)
188.2
197.533
214.9
225
nominal surplus of the overall value of outstanding GKO–OFZ compared to the previous month
9.7%
5%
8.8%
4.7%
IBC – INSTAR rate (annual %) on loans by the end of the month:
overnight
35.17%
53.39%
43.83%
32%
1 week
36.85%
52.36%
41.33%
30%
2 weeks
40.32%
48.96%
39.67%
45%
1 month
70.00%
48.05%
39.40%
40%
turnover of IBC market a month (billion rubles)
29609
32360
37254
40000
effective yield on Vnesheconombank’s bonds. USD:
3 tranche
14.1%
13.4%
11.8%
10.9%
4 tranche
15.7%
14.6%
13.2%
12.0%
5 tranche
16.0%
15.3%
13.5%
12.3%
6 tranche
15.5%
14.9%
13.4%
12.3%
7 tranche
15.5%
15.0%
13.5%
12.5%
official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the end of the month
5348
5396
5455
5508
official exchange rate of ruble per DM by the end of the month
3535
3538
3609
3635
average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US dollar growth
42.6%
11.3%
12.9%
12.3%
average annualized exchange rate of ruble per DM growth
34.5%
-13.2%
2.0%
9.0%
gross turnover at the currency exchange market a month (billion rubles)
1150
1175
822
810
turnover at the stock market in the RTS for the month (millions of USD):
–
292.24
483.35
390
average annualized return at the stock market in the RTS:
–
-13.53%
15.8%
14%
RTS market portfolio risk:
–
12.26%
59.7%
300%
*/ estimate
Arkhipov S.A.. Drobyshevsky S.M.
Investment Policy
This year, due to the intensified budgetary crisis and because of the complicated political situation the risks of long- term investments grew. In such a situation, the potential investors keep their orientation to the most profitable transactions on the national financial market.
The compression of investment demand on the domestic market continues to have a negative effect on a level of business activity in all the economy’s sectors. The arrears crisis, banks’ high interest rates incomparable with profitable rates of production restrict enterprises investment potential. The dynamics of the investment demand over January- October 1996 was restricted by a trend of an advancing price rise for investment resources comparing to a growth of consumer prices. The change in the correlation between prices and a structure of solvent demand has had its impact on a decrease of prices on the real estate market. The latter became one of the factors determining the juncture in the field of house building.
A decrease in volumes of budgetary financing, along with a reduction of reserves, influenced a decline of business activity in house building. It is non- government investments which become a main source of financing in this sphere. The financing of the УHomeФ program was fulfilled at 12% of this year’s limit ( RUR 1.2 trln.) over the 10 month this year. At the expense of the population’s capital, along with an attraction of bank credits, 6.5 mln. square meters of houses were put into operation over 9 months this year. It makes up 138% to the respective period in 1995. At the same time, state- owned enterprises put into operation 3 mln. square meters, or 80% to the same period of the previous year.
The dynamics of house building found themselves under a significant impact of seasonal factor. It is the IIIrd and the IVth quarters on which the most intensive rates of putting living area into operation usually fall. According to the opinion of experts of the RF Ministry of Economy, the reduction in volumes of house building made up. 10% over the period of January- October 1996. They assume that at most the overall volume of a placing houses into operation in 1996 might maintain at the level of 1995.
Table 5 The dynamics of investments in capital assets, in % to the respective period of the previous year.
I quarter | I half year | January- July | January- August | January- September | January- October | |
Gross Domestic Product | 97,0 | 95,0 | 95,0 | 94,0 | 94,0 | 94,0 |
Industry | 96,0 | 96,0 | 95,0 | 95,0 | 95,0 | 95,0 |
Investments | 90,0 | 86,0 | 85,0 | 83,0 | 83,0 | 82,0 |
including by objects: | - | - | - | - | ||
of productive character | 86,0 | 83,0 | 83,0 | 82,0 | 80,0 | 81,0 |
of non- productive character | 95,0 | 86,0 | 95,0 | 85,0 | 90,0 | 84,0 |
Placing living facilities into operation | 103,0 | 99,6 | 95,0 | 98,0 | 91,0 | 90,0 |
Price indices:*) | ||||||
for finished products | 108,9 | 114,5 | 101,2 | 102,1 | 101,8 | 102,8 |
for resources purchased | 107,5 | 113,2 | 101,1 | 102,4 | 102,6 | - |
for investments | 115,3 | 125,9 | 102,2 | 101,7 | 101,8 | - |
for construction and assembling works | 116,4 | 128,7 | 102,9 | 101,9 | 101,9 | - |
*) The Ist quarter- March 1996 to December 1995, Ist half year - June 1996 to December 1995, other months- in % to the previous one
Source: Goskomstat of RF
This year the reduction in investments in industry made up 10% as compared with 1995. Given the reduction in a share of investments to the processing sector, the investment activity in electroenergetics, gas industry, and in the branches of the productive infrastructure is maintained this year. The investment activity is mostly oriented to a maintenance of productive apparatus functioning, at the expense of reconstruction and technical rearmament (59% of investment expenditure).
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