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The general procedure for the arbitral manager appointment is established by 1-6 paragraphs of article 45 of the Federal Law On insolvency (bankruptcy) and envisages, for instance, the possibility for debtorТs rejecting the arbitral manager nominee When the case on bankruptcy № А40-11836/06-88-35УBФ of the OJSC Oil Company YUKOS was considered in the court on 04 August 2006 (the law was adopted on 18.07.2006) the Moscow arbitrary court made a decision on appointment of the temporary manager to the post of the contest manager basing on the decision of the board of creditors, adopted according to article 45 of the Federal Law On insolvency (bankruptcy). By that time the YUKOS debt of USD 482million was negotiated by the Western banking syndicate to OJSC Rosneft, controlled by the government and together with the representatives of the tax bodies having the majority of votes in the board of creditors. Later the comIn fact the legislators suggested the scheme for the appointment of the administrative (external, contest) manager not observing the general procedure for his approval. It is to be noted that the effect of the new law also applies to the legal relations emerging before the law was adopted, that is the law has retroactive effect29.

Besides, as a result of adoption of such a norm, the problems arising in practice as a result of the arbitral manager being forced to get the access to the State secret can be solved. Thus, in some regions there are no arbitral manager having such access at all and it is difficult to make a list out of three nominees. The desire to strengthen the government control ion the field of the bankruptcy of the enterprises of strategic importance faced the difficulty - the lack of the necessary professional staff, being creditworthy for the government, or the incapability of the government securities bodies to solve new tasks set for them.

At the same time one cannot help mentioning that adoption of such a measure, simplifying the procedure for the arbitral manager appointment, narrows significantly the rights of the debtor, that are quite limited, that does not have a right of vote at the board of the creditors.30 The new law having been adopted, in case when there is an agreement reached among the participants of the board of creditors that have the majority of voices concerning the repeated appointment of the arbitral manager, the debtor in fact has no right to reject one of the nominees from the list of arbitral managers, envisaged by paragraph 4 article 45 of the Federal Law УOn insolvency (bankruptcy)Ф. So, the debtor in case when there is an agreement reached by the board of creditors concerning the repeated appointment of the arbitral manager is debarred from the participation in decision making concerning one of the most significant issues in his own enterprise bankruptcy.

Such a limitation of the debtorТs rights in the bankruptcy procedure seem to contradict the principles of the legal equality of the participants of the civil and legal relations as well as the discretionary rules31 in civil rights fulfillment and protection. However it is a specific feature of the Russian legal regulation that the debtor has minimum rights. Thus, is highly indicative that the Federal Law УOn insolvency (bankruptcy)Ф does not have an article concerning the debtorТs rights (there are articles concerning the rights of selfregulating organizations, creditors, state authorized body etc).

Finally, the prolongation of the effect of the Federal Law УOn insolvency (bankruptcy) of the natural monopoliesФ from 24.06.1999 up to July 1, 2009 should be noted - it means that there are other principles for the determination of bankruptcy criteria for natural monopolies in the fuel and energy industry - principle of insolvency,32 preservation of special rules for them, concerning all the stages of bankruptcy procedure, aimed at securing of safety and integrity for the property of the subject of the natural monopoly in the fuel and energy industry, necessity for the participation of the governing body for the fuel and energy complex (article 7) and higher demands for the arbitral manager (article 15).

On the whole, it can be assumed that the changes in the legislation in the field of bankruptcy regulation in 2004-2008 were aimed either at provision of government and/or other interests, represented as the government ones, concerning state corporations, budgets of the different levels, or at the creation of more favorable conditions for some participants of the market. The legislator chose the way of legal regulation that is not aimed at improvement of general norm, regulating the activity of the majority of economic entities, but at creation of special norms, securing higher guaranties for enterprises, in which the government is interested.

Though the attention to the most important enterprises is well-grounded, it should be accompanied with the improvement of the general norms on bankruptcy, securing maximum realization of private rights and interests.

panyТs assets were sold by the YUKOS arbitral manager with a considerable discount (according to the estimations at hand) from the market price. More than 80% of the assets were transferred to the direct or mediated governmentТs control.

According to the general rule civil and legal normative acts do not have a retroactive effect and are applied only to the relations emerging after the act came into effect - according to paragraph 1 article 4 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation if not otherwise stated by the law.

УContest creditors and bodies authorized are referred to as the participants of the board of creditors having the right to voteФ (paragraph 1 article 12 Federal Law УOn insolvency (bankruptcy)Ф).

In civil law the discretionary rule denotes the possibility for participants o the regulated relations to chose the variants of the corresponding behavior on their own, at their own discretion and for the benefit of their own interests See: V. Vitryanski. Specific features of insolvency (bankruptcy) of the subjects of natural monopolies of the power and fuel industry (in Russian) / www.bankr.ru/ doc Estimation of the Possible Inflation Decrease in the RF in Short-term Prospect S.Drobyshevsky It was more than once mentioned in the part УInflation and monetary and fiscal policyФ of our review that at present the Russia faced the situation of the combination of high economic growth rates and high inflation rates. For instance, against the background of the real GDP growth at the level of no less than 6.5%, annual consumer price index increased from 107.5-108.0% (in the first half of 2007) to 115.0% in the middle of 2008. The inflation dynamics start to threaten stable economic development and extremely negatively affect the level of the populationТs welfare, especially its poverty-stricken part. Thus, inflation deceleration, in our opinion is the most urgent task of the monetary authorities and the RF Government at present.

The regulation practice in the countries with the market economy over the last half of the century demonstrated that the firm restricting measures of the economic policy are dangerous and may provoke crisis ion the economy. Similarly, the abuse of stimulate measures at the stage of the continual growth can result in stagflation - the absence of the economic growth under the conditions of high inflation because of the inefficient resources being involved in production. In such a situation it seems that it is necessary to follow the policy of gentle limitation, taking steps aimed at the inflation decrease and combining them with the measures of the economic growth support.

To estimate the influence of various possible anti-inflation measures on the inflation dynamics in the forthcoming years (up to 2011) there were four scenarios of the external conditions change modeled for the period mentioned33:

1. Specified innovation scenario by the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development, corrected taking into account the real inflation in the first half of 2008;

2. Scenario of high prices for oil preservation (extraordinary high prices at the world market in the period up to 2011);

3. Scenario of the budget expenditures growing (execution of the declared liabilities to increase the expenditures);

4. Scenario of the inflation decrease Уat any priceФ down to the set reference points (the possibility being for the economic activity narrowing and the decrease in the economic growth rates).

The presuppositions and the results of calculations for the scenarios mentioned are given below.

The first scenario (specified innovation scenario) - this is the innovation scenario made by the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development34, modified for 2008Ц2011 taking into account that the initial inflation forecast was underestimated (9.0-10.5% in 2008, the real figure being 8.6% over 6 incomplete months). The scenario is described by the following parameters:

- Prices for oil grade Urals at the world markets decreases from USD 92 (2008) to USD 72 (2011) - in concordance with the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development scenario;

- Euro against US dollar exchange rate decreases from 1.54 to 1.4 USD/Euro - in concordance with the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development scenario;

- Real RF GDP growth rates in the period in question is 6.0Ц7.8% a year (according to the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development - 6.2Ц7.6%);

- RF federal budget surplus reduces from 6.3% of the GDP (in 2008) to 3.5% of the GDP (in 2011) - according to the RF Ministry of Finance estimations - from 4.6% to 1.1% of the GDP;

- Money supply M2 growth rates totals 35% and reduces to 20% in 2011. Thus the GDP monetization increases up to 50% of the GDP by 2011 (40.2% at the end of 2007);

- RF trade balance remains positive during the whole period in question (in concordance with the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development it is negative in 2011), nut because of the increase in interest The structural econometric model of the Russian economy, developed at the Institute for the Economy in Transition was used for modeling. This model is a system of structural econometric equations that reflect the correlation between the main macroeconomic variables. With the help of the models mentioned the dynamics being given exogenously one can obtain the forecast for other indices. At the same time each of the equations enables to get the picture of the nature and the force of influence of the separate explanation factors on the dynamics of the variable that is being explained. The model includes 4 main blocks: monetary and financial, real, budgetary and foreign economic one.

Scenario conditions for the functioning of the RF economy, main parameters of RF socio-economic development forecast for 2009 and for the planning period of2010 and payments for the external debt the balance of the current operations account, the same as in the opinion of the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development, turns to negative in 2010-2011 (Ц1Ц2% of the GDP);

- Balance of the capital flow remains positive during the whole period under consideration, compensation for the decrease in the current operations account balance. The achievement of zero RF balance-ofpayments in the scenario in question occurs in 2011, which is in concordance with the RF Ministry for Trade and Economic Development innovation.

In addition to this the estimations of inflation were made for under the following presuppositions concerning anti-inflation measures:

- Decrease in the money supply M2 growth rates down to 25% in 2008 and 13% in 2011, that is to the level, securing the maintenance of the GDP monetization coefficient at the current level (40-41%);

- Reduction in the volumes of external debts of companies and banks with the governmentТs share down to the level that allows refinancing of the current debt to the external world by no more than two thirds of the sum of the debt repaid, that is the reduction in capital inflow by USD 30-40 bln over the period under consideration;

- Increase in the nominal two-currency basket exchange rate by 3% in 2008, by 1.5% in 2009 and maintenance of its nominal exchange rate at the constant level in 2010-2011.

The second scenario (scenario of high prices for oil preservation) is based on the presupposition that extremely high prices for oil will be preserved at the world market over the whole period up to 2011. Correspondingly, the price for oil grade Urals in this scenario is set at the level of USD 110 per barrel in 2008, USD 100 per barrel in 2009-2011.

- High prices for oil define higher as compared with the inertia scenario GDP growth rates (by 0.2-0.percentage points a year), steadily positive foreign trade balance (securing positive balance of the current operations account in 2011 of 0.5% GDP). The amount of the external debt of the private sector maintains in nominal terms at the level postulated for the inertia scenario;

- Within the framework of this scenario it is supposed that the RF Government, despite the growth of the RF federal budget revenues, will preserve the budgetТs expenditures in terms of GDP percentage at the level of no more than the innovation scenario (i.e. only the indexation of the existing liabilities will be conducted in accordance with the change in the level of prices, not making new ones). Thus, the federal budget surplus will not drop below 5-7% of the GDP and will be directed to the RF National Welfare Fund;

- The last two presuppositions (on the balance of the capital operations account and on the federal budget surplus) allow us to assume that the RF Central Bank can keep the money supply growth rates within 2535% a year over the whole period.

For this scenario calculations were made supposing the following concerning anti-inflation measures:

- Decrease in the money supply M2 growth rates down to the level that guarantees that the GDP monetization coefficient will not decrease (i. e. not over 19% by 2011);

- Reduction in the volumes of external debts of companies and banks with the governmentТs share down to the level that allows refinancing of the current debt to the external world by no more than tone half of the sum of the debt repaid, the prices for the energy resources being higher the companies have more opportunities to repay the debt out of the current profit;

- Increase in the nominal two-currency basket exchange rate by 3% in 2008, by 1.5% in 2009 and maintenance of its nominal exchange rate at the constant level in 2010-2011.

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