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Pages: | 1 | ... | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | ... | 21 | During 1998, the financial situation ofmost of the enterprises worsened, the disproportions in the structure of theirfinancial resources were growing. With the reduction of the productionprofitability and of the profit, the own assets of the enterprises decreasedand the mobilized assets saw the growing share of the non-payments and billcrediting.
In January through November 1998, 46.4% ofthe circulating assets were formed by the debts for the dispatched products andperformed works and services, while only 3.2% were formed by the balance of themoney assets on the accounts of the enterprises and organizations. With thesharp deficit of the liquid assets, the breaches of the discipline of thepayments and settlements intensified.
The limitation of the circulating assetsgalvanized the growth of the barter settlements whose use distorted the realpicture of the financial situation of the enterprises and let them withdrawsignificant sums from under taxation. Besides, the real sector of economy hadthe especially painful reaction on the growth of the cost of the creditingresources. First of all, this showed itself in the intensified tendency to thegrowth of the non-payments.
As of the beginning of 1998, the aggregateindebtedness on the liabilities (accounts payable, debts on the bank creditsand loans) of the industry, construction, rural economy, and transport wasRbl.а1,453.0аbillion, including Rbl.а782.2 overdue.
In January through November 1998, theaverage overdue accounts payable were growing monthly by 3.3%. In the fourthquarter of the year, as a result of the measures taken by the RF Governmentregulating the settlements between enterprises and organizations, the growthrates of the overdue accounts payable reduced to 2.1% in October and 1.1% inNovember.
During 1998, the overdue accounts payablegrew more than 1.5‑fold. As of 1аDecemberа1998, the aggregate indebtedness on theliabilities of the industry, construction, rural economy, and transport reachedRbl.а2,751.9аbillion, of them Rbl.а1,307.1аbillion overdue. The main debts(56.5% of the aggregate and 65.2% of the overdue accounts payable) fell on theindustrial enterprises.
During 1998, the structure of the overdueaccounts payable was changing insignificantly: the debts to the suppliersstayed within the limits 46% to 47% and the debts to the budgets of all thelevels stayed within the limits 19% to 20%.
As of the end of 1998, the overdue accountspayable were about 46% of the GDP while the accounts receivable were about 29%of the GDP, i.e., in whole, the enterprises were net debtors and the sum of thenet debt was systematically growing.
As of the beginning of December 1998, theaggregate accounts payable in Russia were Rbl.а1,547.9аbillion, of themRbl.а776.2аbillion overdue. In the structure of the overdue accounts payable,84.2% fell on the indebtedness of the purchasers, including 5.4% of thepayments for the performed works and services under the stateorders.
The trend to the growth of the debt on thelabor remuneration intensified, as well. As of 1аJanuaryа1999, the aggregatedebts on the labor remuneration was Rbl.а77аbillion, it had grown1.4‑fold comparedwith the beginning of 1998, including, respectively, by Rbl.а55.7аbillion and1.2‑fold in theproduction branches and by Rbl.а21.3аbillion and 2.6‑fold in the social sphere. Theaggregate debt exceeded 3.7‑fold the monthly labor remuneration fund at the enterprises havingthe debts on the labor remuneration. Almost 75% of the aggregate debt is due tothe absence at the enterprises and organizations of the own money to pay thewages and salaries. The debt due to the absence of the direct financing fromthe budgets of all the levels, mainly regional, was, as of 1аJanuaryа1999,Rbl.а19.7аbillion.
The aggravation of the financial situationof the enterprises, the growth of the non-payments in the economy and of thelabor remuneration debts determined the peculiarities of formation of the GDPby incomes.
Table 2.4
Structure of formation of GDP by incomes (%of balance)
1995 | 1996 | 1997 | ||
Gross domesticproduct, total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
including: | ||||
Labor remuneration ofhired workers and employees, including hidden | 43.9 | 46.9 | 46.9 | 48.2 |
Net taxes onproduction and import | 11.8 | 12.6 | 13.8 | 13.4 |
44.3 | 40.5 | 39.3 |
Source: Russian State Committee forstatistics (Goskomstat).
Since 1996, the growth of the differencewas seen between the indexes of the labor remuneration determined on thecalculation basis and the estimates of the real cash flows in the economy. Thegap between the calculated and really paid labor remuneration grew from 2% ofthe GDP in 1997 up to 3.1% of the GDP in 1998. The share of the laborremuneration of the hired workers and employees, including the hidden one, grewin 1998 up to 48.2% against the 46.9% of 1997. The estimated labor remunerationwithout the hidden one gave 37.5% of the GDP.
The structure of the GDP formation byincomes saw the reduction of the shares of the gross profit and gross mixedincome: as compared with 1997, it made 0.9аpercentage points.
Use of the Gross Domestic Product
The main factors influencing the dynamicand structure of the use of the gross domestic product in 1998 were both thereduction of the end use and the high rates of reduction of the demand forinvestments.
Table 2.5
Dynamic of use of the GDP in 1997-1998, as %of the preceding year
1997 | ||
Gross domesticproduct | 100.9 | 96.0 |
Expenditures on enduse: | 101.8 | 97.5 |
households | 102.4 | 97.3 |
stateentities | 100.5 | 98.0 |
Grossaccumulation | 100.6 | 89.4 |
87.5 |
*) Estimate of Ministry of economy ofRussia
Source: Russian State Committee forstatistics (Goskomstat).
The trend to the reduction of the end usewas observed since the beginning of 1998; it had been conditioned by thereduction of the real incomes of the population. Before this, the almostfive-year trend to the reduction of the real incomes of the population, hadbeen overcome in 1997: their increment had made 1.9%. In 1997, the slowdown ofthe inflation rates had resulted in the growth of the real labor remunerationand, to the end of the year, of the real pensions.
The change of the external economicconjuncture and reduction of the income of both the state and enterpriseslimited sharply the possibilities to stabilize the social parameters. Thetendency to the reduction of the real disposable incomes of the populationrenewed. During the first half-year, they reduced by 11.2% compared with thefirst half of 1997. With the remaining tendency to the growth of the realcalculated wages and pensions, the reduction of the real consumption of thepopulation was initiated by the growth of the debt of the state and enterpriseson the social guarantees and labor remuneration. The conservation of the lowinflation environment was the factor attenuating the splashes of the socialtension.
The crisis of the financial and creditingsystem intensified the effect of the negative factors determining the socialand economic indexes of the level of life. The devaluation of the Ruble and theunprecedented crisis of the banking system resulted in the critical situationof the consumer sector of the economy.
In the conditions of the rushing growth ofthe prices, the real disposable incomes of the population began rapidlyreducing, and in the second half of the year, the end consumption of thehouseholds reduced by 2.7%. The purchasing activity of the populationdecreased, and the retail turnover reduced, during the year, by 4.5% with thevisible worsening of its macrostructure.
In 1997, the expenditures on the currentconsumption of households were reducing and made 67.9% of all the incomes ofthe population. With the renewal, in 1998, of the inflation processes, theshare of the expenditures on the end consumption of households grew by 0.5percentage points. From the beginning of 1998, the structure of theexpenditures of the population saw the stable growth of the expenditures onpurchase of the goods and services, including the communal services, which wasconnected with both the reduction of the budgetary subsidies and the growth ofthe prices and tariffs in this sector of economy. The specific share of theexpenditures on the purchase of the goods reached its peak in September (92.4%)as the result of the almost 1.5‑fold monthly growth of the prices; in whole, during the year, itmade 78.5%.
The grown in the second half-year inflationexpectations resulted in the significant shifts in the structure of use of theincomes of the population: while in Julyа1998, the organized savings of thepopulation reached Rbl.а166.1аbillion, to December they reduced byRbl.а25аbillion. The outflow of the deposits would have been much higher if theprocess had not been regulated by the decisions of the governmental and bankingstructures. To the end of the first half-year, the share of the savings reached18% of the money incomes of the population; in the fourth quarter-year itdropped down to 12.3%.
The formed situation led to the inefficientfor the national economy use of the savings of the population: a significantshare of the savings is stored in hard currency. In combination with thereduction of the real incomes of the population, the possibility of thehouseholds to invest in the national economy was strongly worsening: the grosssavings of the households dropped, in 1998, more than two-fold: from the 15.7%of the GDP in 1997 down to the 9.7% of the GDP in 1998.
Table 2.6
Structure of end use of gross domesticproduct (% of balance)
1995 | 1996 | 1997 | ||
Gross domesticproduct, total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Expenditures on endconsumption | 72.8 | 72.9 | 76.0 | 76.5 |
includinghouseholds | 50.5 | 50.1 | 51.6 | 56.2 |
Grossaccumulation | 23.7 | 23.1 | 21.1 | 18.2 |
3.5 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
Source: Russian State Committee forstatistics (Goskomstat).
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